Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s rally trended up into the afternoon’s bias environment to 2315.75. The balance of the afternoon back-and-filled down to 2312.00, hanging on to confirm Thursday’s breakout. The requirement to retest overbought RSIs at 2315.75 was left outstanding, along with the afternoon’s 2316.75 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged 3 points and attacked Friday’s 2315.75 high to within 1 tick. Its consolidation soon broke to new highs at 2318.00. Just enough complexity along the way created a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires eventual retest intraday. That didn’t prevent retracing the entire surge back down to its 2313.50 origin. Its reaction has been ranging narrowly, and is now firming up to 2317.00.
If, then…
Thursday’s breakout now eventually requires at least a third higher close. And being a new trend high close on a Friday also requires another eventual new trend high close. Neither of which prevents an immediate pullback. Nor does last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” — which is a landmark, not an attraction. Two actual attractions left outstanding Friday were neutralized overnight. Meanwhile, having printed a new trend high, exiting the open under the overnight low would start to suggest a temporary corrective retracement is underway to 2304.50, 2297.00, or deeper. Opening strength that retests Friday’s 2315.75 and 2316.75 ” unfinished business above” would still be vulnerable to reversing down. Extending higher, instead, would have potential to test 2327.00-2330.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2314.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2317.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2318.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2320.75 | 2317.00 |
| …would target | 2326.75 | 2323.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2312.75 | 2309.25 |
| …would target | 2307.50 | 2303.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
There is no Saturday Review this weekend. So, the market Wrap included a bigger picture review. Please don’t hesitate sending me any questions or chart analysis requests, which I’ll respond to over the weekend…
Thursday’s breakout was confirmed by Friday’s second consecutive higher close. At least a third higher close is likely eventually. At least one more higher close is required also due to a new trend high close on a Friday. The two setups are unrelated — not all breakout confirmations are on Fridays, or at new trend extremes. So their shared requirement is exponentially more reliable.
None of which prevents immediately launching a pullback. A corrective retracement, temporary before recovering back up to and through Friday’s 2315.75 high. But not necessarily avoiding a dip to 2304.50, 2297.00, or deeper.
Overbought RSIs at Friday’s 2315.75 high require a retest. The afternoon’s 2316.75 bias-up target remains outstanding. Testing either Sunday night would be vulnerable to reversing down. Exceeding both through Monday’s open would likely extend to test 2327.00-2330.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Again, this weekend’s Saturday Review is cancelled. The chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night with Globex… Enjoy the weekend!
Pre-close View… New highs ahead of the close.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
This morning’s 2311.75 bias-up target was met to within 1 tick during the bias environment. This afternoon’s bias-up signal has extended to within 1 point of its 2316.75 target.
The high should be retested since its RSIs are overbought. But its retest need not be today. And it might not be, having exited the bias environment back under the noon hour’s 2313.50 high.
Maintaining a break under 2312.75 (being tested now) could correct down to 2309.75 or 2308.50, and still not reverse the trend down.
Getting carried away, and closing under yesterday’s 2307.75 high, would prevent a new trend high close today. That would mean not confirming yesterday’s breakout. It would also mean not exploiting the proximity to a new trend high close on a Friday.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s open gapped down under the drop’s minimum 1.0645 objective, and spent the day fluctuating around it — almost filling the gap back up to Thursday’s close. Closing lower would confirm that the retest’s delay has put into play lower objectives.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Thursday’s pullback overnight produced a gap down Friday, whose recovery back above 1230.00 put into play a test of Tuesday’s 1242.00 gap up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night’s slide retested the rally’s 17.63 target as support, which held Friday’s gap down and reversed up steeply intraday to new highs. The next higher target of 18.18 is in-play, so long as 17.70 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reversing down from Wednesday’s test of 153-12 extended down overnight under 151-31 support. The gap down extended intraday to test 151-11, but recovered to test 151-31 as resistance. Closing under 151-11 is still needed to confirm a new downleg is underway.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The gap back up to Monday’s 53.00 close had held its test Thursday, but Friday’s open gapped up again, through the actual 53.55 buy signal and higher to attack 54.25. Closing any higher would target a test of 55.25.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down from its gap up extended lower overnight to gap down Friday. Intraday lows barely touched the prior Friday’s 3.01 low, suggesting ineffectual optimism, and maintaining the 2.91 target.