Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 13, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No economic reports are scheduled for Monday. There are also no scheduled Fed speakers.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2315.50 | 2311.75 |
| …would target | 2320.25 | 2316.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2308.00 | 2304.50 |
| …would target | 2302.00 | 2298.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Gap up maintained, so far.
Gap up, bias-up… but a little slow to follow-through.
The 2308.00 opening print was only 1 tick above yesterday’s high. Above it, at it, or even slightly under it, the relevant question is whether the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended through it. And it did, up to 2310.00.
So, after yesterday’s rally failed to gain traction, trending higher this morning required gapping up through the open. That is done. But gapping up through the open does not, itself, require trending higher.
2310.00 was the nearest inflection point, and it has only been touched. Its reaction attacked the 2307.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. Attacked it, but didn’t break under it, not by 10:15, triggering bias-up.
Back under 2307.00 through 10:30 would invalidate the bias-up. Without yet printing above the 2310.00 pre-10:15 high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2306.75 pre-10:15 low would invalidate the bias-up.
Meanwhile, this is still a bias-up environment. Its 2311.75 bias-up target is in-play. Perhaps higher, too, since the open’s gap up negates yesterday’s rally not gaining traction — but doesn’t require extending higher.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Thursday above prior highs to 2294.00 was maintained, and extended through the morning’s bias environment up to 2306.00. Consolidating back down to 2302.25 was retraced in time to surge out of the afternoon’s bias environment. But only to attack 2308.00 before hesitating, and then reversing back down to 2303.00 — still qualifying easily as a breakout.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s highs were soon recovered, and then probed up to 2309.50. The portion of price action above yesterday’s 2308.00 high lacked the complexity that would otherwise form a “new Globex trend extreme.” So, there is no requirement to retest the overnight high. But it’s still currently in proximity, as it reacted down only 2304.75.
If, then…
No traction was gained by yesterday’s rally, so probing above it is potentially only noise. Extending the rally durably this morning would require gapping up above yesterday’s 2308.00 high. Not gapping up could still extend higher this morning — probably testing 2311.00 — while remaining vulnerable to trending back down through the afternoon. Regardless of the open’s setup, extending higher would next target 2327.00. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2308.00 would be likely to trigger the 2307.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2302.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2310.75 | 2307.00 |
| …would target | 2315.25 | 2311.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2303.00 | 2299.50 |
| …would target | 2296.75 | 2293.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.