Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Market Wrap was held one hour earlier because I am away from the screens for the final hour.]
A surge exited the afternoon bias environment probing above its 2306.00 resistance. But only to attack 2308.00 before hesitating. Extending higher would next target 2311.00 and potentially also 2327.00. But more importantly, a final hour reversal down would be avoided.
Trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would be optimal for today’s rally gaining traction. If not, then extending higher tomorrow morning would all but require gapping up again.
Reversing down today need not collapse, but it could. Extending higher tomorrow morning need not persist into the afternoon, but it should. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. In the market Wrap recording I briefly touched on the challenge and meaning to this pattern closing higher on a Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday probed slightly lower lows, suggesting both that the prior two sessions’ consolidation had not formed a bottom, and that filling the gap back down to 1.0645 remains in-play.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Maintaining Wednesday’s gap up overnight into Thursday’s open didn’t prevent breaking lower during the morning to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1236.00 close, and probing $4 lower. Wednesday’s opening gap up to 1242.00 is now an attraction, and extending any higher would next target 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging sideways Wednesday night didn’t attract new sponsorship for Thursday morning, which dipped back down to test 17.63 as support. A new recovery high close remains likely so long as support holds.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Briefly probing into positive territory overnight failed to resume the rally above its 153-12 objective that had been probed already Wednesday up to 153-21. Thursday’s open soon probed under the 152-18 sell signal and extended down to 151-31.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday immediately filled the gap back to Monday’s 53.00 close, and fluctuated choppily around it intraday. Filling the gap didn’t also reverse momentum up, so Thursday’s bounce isn’t disqualified from being only a temporary correction before resuming the decline .
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight above the 3.15 bounce limit only exacerbated the non-strong position greeting Thursday’s EIA report. Its reaction down probed negative territory down to 3.10, and closing under 3.06 would resume the downleg next targeting 2.91.
Mid-day Update… and a reminder.
TODAY’S MARKET WRAP BEGINS ONE HOUR EARLY AT 2:33 ET BECAUSE I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS DURING THE FINAL HOUR.
This morning’s rally was relentless, and very productive, extending to 2306.00. The most dominant pattern I’m tracking satisfies a lot of buying pressure there. Reacting down during the noon hour suggests as much.
But reacting down only to the 2302.75 sell signal suggests that other patterns are influential, too. And now 2306.00 is being retested.
2306.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and it did not trigger. Probing above it could be noise, but extending above it before 2:30 would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. There’s room up to 2307.00 before suggesting a move is underway to the 2311.00 objective.
2311.00 doesn’t require being met. There is otherwise no higher objective or “unfinished business above” outstanding. And there is a lot of room below if upside momentum were to lapse.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Consumer Sentiment report offers one of the first significant checks to last Friday’s surprisingly strong Employment Situation report.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2310.00 | 2306.00 |
| …would target | 2314.75 | 2311.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2302.25 | 2298.50 |
| …would target | 2297.00 | 2293.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.