Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Slow and steady.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS DURING TODAY’S FINAL HOUR. MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD EARLIER.
Reacting down from the overnight 2296.25 high had retraced to 2291.50. The 2293.00 open never touched the 2292.75 bias-up signal.
Firming back to the overnight high maintained the gap up at or above 2294.00, and bias-up triggered.
The 2297.75 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded by 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, but it was still a bias-up environment. The target also wasn’t touched by 10:15 to satisfy its buying pressure. Quickly after 10:15 a surge extended to the target. And through it.
The two-week old 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” is now being probed up to new highs at 2301.25.
Prior highs are natural resistance, but only increase the vulnerability to backing-and-filling. The next higher objective is likely 2311.00, and reacting down would likely be only obligatory, especially so long as it 2297.00 holds any test of support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late 2292.00 high finally touched the objective that had been put into play by holding a test of the morning’s 2283.50 bias-down signal. The intraday recovery fought through natural resistance at the gap back to Tuesday’s 2288.00 close. Its morning peak and noon hour consolidation had hovered pessimistically short of the overnight highs. And the afternoon had already neutralized the objective to within 3 ticks. The recovery didn’t gain traction and enough time remained to react down, but the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having satisfied the 2292.00 upside objective, Globex initially retraced back down to 2287.25. A gradual recovery paced itself to greet Europe’s opens back at 2292.00. Its corrective dip and three-hour consolidation eventually resolved up by surging sharply to 2296.25.
If, then…
Like the two prior sessions, new highs still remained likely despite Wednesday also being entered pessimistically. And since the intraday recovery didn’t gain traction for its effort, gapping up is the only credible start to a morning rally. The two-week old 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” still requires a retest, which is likely also to visit 2311.00. New highs are vulnerable to reversing down abruptly and sharply, especially if produced abruptly and sharply, which gapping up suggests. All of which can still be avoided by retracing deeply enough pre-open to avoid gapping up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2294.25 would be likely to trigger the 2292.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2299.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2297.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2291.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2297.00 | 2292.75 |
| …would target | 2301.75 | 2297.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2288.75 | 2284.75 |
| …would target | 2282.75 | 2278.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The morning’s 2292.00 bias-up signal had required being tested, since the morning’s 2283.50 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. Neutralizing it during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would have evolved into a new rally leg.
Missing that window made the balance of the session much likelier only to range flat-to-higher, and unlikely to trend down. In fact, the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window touched 2292.00, and only reacted down to 2290.00.
Like the past two sessions, new highs remain likely, if only up to 2311.00 instead of to 2327.00. And new highs remain vulnerable to reversing down abruptly and sharply, especially if produced that same way. Avoiding new highs would likely be only temporary, and likely to begin only by gapping down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging choppily sideways Wednesday did not invalidate the break already underway, and next targeting 1.0645.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s confirmed breakout extended higher overnight to gap Wednesday, and then probe higher intraday to test 1246.50. Reacting down into the afternoon probed the 1241.90 open down to 1239.00, still maintaining the gap above Tuesday’s highs. A third higher close is fulfilled, but extending higher anyway would have potential to 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday extended to a fresh high at 17.87 before dipping back down to close slightly negative at 17.70. At least an eventual third higher close remains outstanding, with potential to 18.18.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective of filling the gap back up to 153-12 was fulfilled Wednesday morning, and then exceeded up to 153-21. Reacting down to 152-26 may indicate the rally has ended, but back under 152-18 would reverse the trend back down.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Lower lows overnight down to 51.22 were already firming into Wedneday’s open, and then rallied in reaction to after the morning’s EIA report. The 52.55 sell signal that had triggered Tuesday was retested, but not recovered.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce up to the 3.12-3.15 bounce limit began reacting down immediately Wednesday, but only reacted back up from touching the 3.06 support whose break would resume the decline next targeting 2.91.