Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Step one: recover. Check.
Morning returns to unchanged.
Having held this morning’s 2283.50 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2292.00 bias-up signal was put into play. It was attacked to 2290.50, and has become “unfinished business above.”
Consolidating through the noon hour attacked 2286.00 as support. Twice. Both reactions up tested 2289.00. It’s being tested again now — still short of the 2290.50 morning’s high, the 2291.25 overnight high, and the 2292.00 unfinished business above.
Stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high this morning could be constructive pessimism, potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Hovering just under unchanged isn’t very predictive either way, but it has nonetheless kept the market in proximity to launching another rally leg.
Of course, another rally leg would probably be limited to testing 2292.00, which is now also this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And a 5-point reaction down would still be within this morning’s range. But rallying out of the bias environment lapsing would still be able to extend to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers on Thursday offer some of the earliest glimpses into current policy thinking since last week’s Employment Situation report. Meanwhile, the 30-year auction often inhibits volatility ahead of its results.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Bullard Speaks
9:10 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:10 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2296.25 | 2292.00 |
| …would target | 2301.75 | 2297.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2286.50 | 2282.50 |
| …would target | 2281.25 | 2277.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hanging on for dear life.
Sliding into and out of the open.
The 2291.25 overnight high had recovered a reaction down to 2286.50. But no higher. And no longer.
Trending down to fresh overnight lows greeted the open at 2284.00. Extending down post-open touched 2281.00.
Bouncing back up to 2286.50 avoided triggering the 2283.50 bias-down signal. So, holding its test has put into play an offsetting test of the 2292.00 bias-up signal.
It’s too late to invalidate the bias signal at 10:30. The task is now left to exiting the bias environment back under the 2283.50 bias-down signal. That is, unless without printing above the pre-10::15 2286.50 high.
Back under 2282.25 would start to signal that invalidation is underway. The 2277.75 bias-down target wouldn’t be in-play. But the likely objective would nevertheless be 2275.00-2277.00.
Otherwise, back above 2286.50 would confirm the no-bias signal, and its 2292.00 target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying Monday night had tested Friday’s 2294.00 prior high. Tuesday’s gap up tested Friday’s high as the opening 15 minutes of volatility ended. It was probed only high enough to neutralize Monday’s unfinished business above at 2295.25. The balance of the session retraced the overnight rally, filling the gap from Monday’s close down to 2285.25. The morning’s bias-up signal was invalidated, and no “unfinished business” was left outstanding above or below.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce up to 2290.00 was being retraced already into the close. The retracement immediately extended to probe 1 point under Tuesday’s low to 2284.25. That was the end of that. Rallying from there greeted Europe’s opens at 2291.25. A reaction down to 2286.50 has recovered back up to 2291.25.
If, then…
Isolating a probe under Monday and Tuesday’s lows to the overnight would have been bullish for today. Especially if that probe had tested or at least attacked 2280.75. But the only probe under yesterday’s low was a single point, and it was part of a leg underway already into the close. And now there’s too little time to isolate a probe before the open. The 2294.000 prior highs are still near enough to be recovered quickly through the open. But dipping back under ~2286.00 through the open would turn this morning into a deeper pullback — still likely only temporary, but a detour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2294.00 would be likely to trigger the 2292.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2288.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2286.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2283.50 bias-down signal.