Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2298.75 | 2294.00 |
| …would target | 2304.50 | 2299.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2292.75 | 2288.00 |
| …would target | 2288.00 | 2283.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hurry up, and wait. Up there.
Overnight rally maintained through the open.
Extending the rally this morning still isn’t assured. Neither does the rally require it. The open provided 2-1/2 bullish factors that allow time to consolidate.
First, gapping up to 2293.00 was maintained above yesterday morning’s 2291.50 high. A dip tested it, and then recovered to a fresh high at 2295.00.
Second, that fresh high was a 9:45 test of Friday’s 2294.00 high. Impatient buying had not tested it before then. Not recovering it at 9:45 doesn’t have implications either way. This is actually worth only a 1/2, since exceeding 2294.00 or else not touching it at all would be cleaner.
Third, the 2291.25 bias-up signal triggered. Its 2296.75 bias-up target is in-play.
Less bullish is the 2295.00 opening high having come within 3 ticks of the 2295.25 bias obligation outstanding from yesterday. Its attraction above it is now neutralized.
There’s not yet any fresh post-open high since triggering the bias signal at 10:15. Until there is, the bias-signal can still be invalidated. A detour down to 2290.50 would threaten to prevent the higher attraction from becoming “unfinished business above.”
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal was touched at the open, and held through the bias timing window. The setup put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal. Its only attack was made quickly into the bias timing window, and peaked quickly at 2191.50. The balance of the session fluctuated around the 2284.00 overnight low and the morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal. A test of 2295.25 remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.”.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging around 2284.00-2286.25 persisted into Europe’s opens. After allowing some time without resolving down, firming recovered to yesterday’s last-minute 2288.25 high. And then through it aggressively, reacting first to what is this morning’s 2291.25 bias-up signal. Surging again is attacking Friday’s highs up to 2294.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s market Wrap described why any credible rally should begin without delay. So, does already surging overnight make this morning any likelier to rally? It’s a good start. But upon testing the 2294.00 prior highs, their resistance must still be exceeded through the open. “Unfinished business above” from yesterday at 2295.25 could serve as resistance. Last Wednesday’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2299.50 is not so much an attraction as it is a landmark, so satisfying its required retest won’t necessarily satisfy buying pressure. Although this surge could have launched a 35-point upleg if triggered yesterday, the pattern still allows for a steep double-digit move if not rejected early..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2293.25 would be likely to trigger the 2291.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2288.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2295.75 | 2291.25 |
| …would target | 2301.25 | 2296.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2286.00 | 2281.50 |
| …would target | 2280.00 | 2275.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
This morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal proved more influential Monday than was even suggested until 90 minutes before the open. That was the soonest it was even touched overnight, let alone probed on the way down to 2284.00.
Recovering 2286.25 did put into play an offsetting test of 2295.25. But there was hardly any effort to get there. The balance of the session was about retesting 2284.00, and trying again to recover 2286.25.
A test of 2295.25 remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.”
Monday’s inside day was contained within Friday’s range. Its low held a test of last Wednesday’s opening gap up, which Friday’s open had also tested. It is essentially a “lower prior high,” singularly represented as 2283.50, and there is no bullish reason to retest it.
So, any credible rally Tuesday should be aggressive, and probably not be delayed much if at all. Falling any further would be likely to fall back to 2275.00, where only the briefest test would be credible for not crumbling on the way to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.