Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s spike low in reaction to Payrolls was retested immediately by Monday’s gap down, but not extended — certainly not on a closing basis — which would trigger a much deeper reversal down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two consecutive sessions of only overlapping the 1218.00 buy signal didn’t prevent trending up Sunday night or gapping up Monday morning. The breakout from a multi-session range would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday, targeting 1235.00 and potentially 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday to test 17.63 resistance was extended higher intraday to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 17.71 open. Extending higher through Tuesday’s close would target 18.18, and potentially also 18.70.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bearish, distributive sealed top had already extended its bounce from Jan 3’s obligatory support. Friday’s failed bounce didn’t extend down any deeper, nor did it prevent gapping up Monday to test the 151-11 extreme bounce limit. Immediately reacting back down under 150-24 may be the only near-term path lower.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night was barely recognized by Monday’s open. Reversing back down into negative territory hasn’t invalidated potential for extending to 55.25, but any further reaction down would start to suggest 54.25 resistance has held.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday to a fresh low at 3.00 didn’t extend down any deeper to the lower objective outstanding at 2.91. Rather, a bounce filled the gap back up to Friday’s 3.06 close. That attraction above is neutralized, so the decline should resume and be productive by Tuesday afternoon.
Mid-day Update… They’re not making it any easier.
Noon hour slide is retesting overnight low.
Holding a test of the 2286.25 bias-down signal through the 10:15 bias timing window put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal. Piercing fresh post-open highs after 10:15 by only 3 ticks was still sufficient to protect the setup from being invalidated.
And it wasn’t. But neither has it extended any higher to its objective. In fact, just the opposite. Sliding since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, through the noon hour, just pierced the 2284.00 overnight low by 2 ticks. Invoking the bias signal’s grace period didn’t help it to avoid triggering noN-bias, still overlapping 2285.25 at both 1:20 and 1:30.
Back above 2286.50 would start to signal another rally attempt underway. Otherwise, drifting further down to 2281.00 or lower is likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s JOLTS report is both high-profile, and often influential to price action.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2297.50 | 2292.75 |
| …would target | 2303.00 | 2298.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2289.75 | 2285.25 |
| …would target | 2287.50 | 2279.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Pre-open dip keeps the lid on it.
Gap down holds test of bias-down signal.
A late probe of fresh overnight lows has been retraced into and out of the open. Its recovery was potentially bearish, 
filling the gap back to Friday’s futures close so that its attraction is now neutralized. Recovering the late dip is also potentially bullish, having put into play fresh highs.
The 10-point drop down to 2284.00 had bounced enough for the open to touch 2286.25 and then extend higher. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, holding its test through 10:15 has put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal.
Touching 2286.25 post-open was likely in a bullish scenario, and recovering 2288.00 led the scenario to include testing 2290.75. The objective was met, and retested, but not yet actually exceeded.
Reacting down to 2287.25 should be only a temporary corrective dip before resolving up. Invalidating the bias signal became much more difficult when price probed a fresh post-open high after 10:15.
Back above 2290.00 would start to signal the recovery was resuming. But not yet recovering when the bias environment begins lapsing could require a deeper dip to 2281.00 before bottoming.