Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday ended four consecutive sessions of closing at (or once within several ticks of) 2275.00. It wouldn’t have happened without the session gapping above those four sessions, and with the open maintaining the gap. The 2287.00 open was retraced 4 points, and then recovered to attack 2294.00 before the morning bias environment began lapsing. The prior Thursday-Friday “higher prior lows” were recovered, but their upper-end still held as resistance. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, supported by 2290.00. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open slid as America, the world, and our galaxy all were stunned by the Atlanta Falcons early and wide lead over the defending champions New England Patriots. Almost simultaneously timed to the come-from-behind victory, the slide stopped at 2287.50. And it was recovered entirely, eventually piercing Friday’s highs up to 2294.25. Price has since slid back down to test 2290.00.
If, then…
There’s still no evidence that stretching the rubber band tighter last week down to 2275.00 will be any more fruitful in resuming the rally. One piece of evidence against it would be to gap down this morning, which would target 2275.00, and lower. But a gap down isn’t currently threatened. Rather, being back in the orbit of last week’s 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” makes its retest likely sooner rather than later..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2294.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2295.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2290.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2286.25 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2299.00 | 2295.25 |
| …would target | 2334.00 | 2330.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2290.00 | 2286.25 |
| …would target | 2284.75 | 2281.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/4/17) …
This weekend’s Saturday Review is comprehensive, yet concise. The current attack on retesting the prior week’s overnight highs has a likelihood of succeeding. It’s not 100%, but there should be only one exception that can prevent it Monday. Similarly, the current attack on probing new highs has a likelihood of being meteoric — in both directions — but with two exceptions. One exception that would point higher for longer, and one that would point lower, perhaps indefinitely. Setups that would be predictive of each resolution are described in detail. Enjoy!
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CMG, AMD, INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, GS, BAC, JPM, MS
02/04/2017 09:54:47 Mark Glezer: hi Rod
02/04/2017 09:55:10 Mark Glezer: how long do you think the upward can continue?
02/04/2017 09:59:01 Mark Glezer: Quick request – in light of your new morning schedule would it be possible to publish a brief update around 9:15 in case it narrows down your expectations from the First Trade and indicates the most likely open scenario? That would be very beneficial for those who are not in the room and do not see your Q&A at 9:15
02/04/2017 10:04:02 Mark Glezer: I mean publish on the blog
02/04/2017 10:04:22 Mark Glezer: no
02/04/2017 10:04:33 Mark Glezer: if you can of course
02/04/2017 10:06:26 Mark Glezer: could u repeat the downside targets if we somehow gap under 2283?
02/04/2017 10:06:53 Mark Glezer: no longer 48.5?
02/04/2017 10:10:19 Bill G: I think we may need a decent pullback (5%) to allow a subsequent rally to cause divergences in indexes at a final new high.
02/04/2017 10:11:04 Mark Glezer: BTV is talking about 4-5% pullback in Feb
02/04/2017 10:11:07 Bill G: Call it 3-5%
02/04/2017 10:13:31 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/04/2017 10:17:00 Mark Glezer: I do not know what can make CMG go higher if they keep losing revenue & there are much better alternatives to them around
02/04/2017 10:25:08 Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
So long, 2275.00. But, for how long?
Gapping up above prior highs Friday broke free from the four-day choppy ranging that had continually closed at 2275.00. The test of 2275.00 had become necessary last Thursday-Friday when intraday dips weren’t refueling buyers sufficiently to resume the rally. Well, the rally that was launched from four days of testing 2275.00 has only returned to last Thursday-Friday’s “higher prior lows.” So, there’s still no evidence that stretching the rubber band tighter will be any more fruitful in resuming the rally.
Nevertheless, being back in the orbit of last week’s 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” makes its retest likely sooner rather than later, unless Monday were to gap back down. Which would target 2275.00, and lower. After all, Friday’s retest of last week’s Island has neutralized its attraction above, and its protection against launching a more substantial drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us at 9:30 ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send its link overnight.