Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Teasing at the high, or afraid of it.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
Hovering at and/or around the bias signal in a noN-bias environment often resolves in the signal’s direction when the bias environment lapses. This afternoon’s 2292.25 bias-up signal did just that, as price was almost glued to it.
And now price is firming. But only barely, back up to this morning’s 2293.75 high. Still no resolution.
Often, when not exploiting that opportunity to trend in the signal’s direction, the setup will resolve in the opposite direction. That’s not yet unlikely in this setup, since price hasn’t yet resolved up.
Resolving up at all would target new highs. Meanwhile, the delay in resolving up keeps alive potential for another downdraft, first.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report initially dipped to touch the 1.0725 sell signal. Its reaction back up into positive territory above 1.0810 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern that would be triggered back under 1.0740.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report only neutralized attractions below, testing the 1212.00 pullback limit, while nearly filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1207.50 close. Bouncing back above 1218.00 makes fresh highs likely at 1235.00 and potentially also 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday morning’s knee-jerk reaction down on the Employment Situation report touched lower prior highs near 17.25, and bounced back to unchanged. A retest of Thursday’s 17.70 gap open must be probed to put into play 18.18.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 151-11 bounce limit to within 2 ticks after Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was reversed back down into negative territory, testing 150-00 and presumably resuming the decline.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing back up to 54.25 held again Friday, but wasn’t rejected, making fresh highs also likely to test 55.25. But only closing back under 53.50 would suggest momentum reversing down instead, targeting 49.05 and 47.80.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce in reaction to the EIA report had still stopped short of signaling the decline’s momentum was lapsing. Trending back down overnight gapped down Friday to test 3.04, still targeting 2.91.
Mid-day Update… Checking out the view.
Hovering just under session highs.
2290.00 was probed this morning by almost 4 points attacking 2294.00. A reaction down attacked 2289.00. Exiting the bias environment above 2290.00 all but ensures that new highs are in-play.
We already knew before yesterday’s close that the ranging was not accumulative, so rallying would require gapping up. Gapping up in reaction to new this morning suggests the rally is sponsored by weak hands. None of which prevents actually probing higher, potentially to 2327.00.
Meanwhile, hovering pessimistically short of the morning’s high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But fluctuating narrowly around this afternoon’s 2292.25 bias-up signal hasn’t made the rally any likelier to resume, only that at least a probe of new highs develops.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only Monday’s post-open factory orders has a legitimate chance at influencing price action. Meanwhile, no other influential report is being released.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2296.00 | 2292.25 |
| …would target | 2302.00 | 2298.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2289.50 | 2285.75 |
| …would target | 2282.50 | 2278.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.