Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This is an unusal Employment Situation report on Friday. It’s rare to be accompanied by any other reports, even on the same day. At least they’re not typically high-profile and influential. The session also has a Fed speaker to dscuss the prior day’s influences.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:15 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2281.75 | 2278.00 |
| …would target | 2287.25 | 2283.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2274.75 | 2271.00 |
| …would target | 2269.75 | 2266.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… Range bound? Quite a range.
Morning’s rally may have defined the range’s upper-end.
REMINDER: I AM UNAVAILABLE SINCE NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION. THERE WILL BE NO MARKET WRAP.
Not bad for a half-day’s work. Or, half-morning, actually. Testing the 2278.75 bias-up signal was the predictable outcomeof this morning’s setup. That was fulfilled, by a surge through 2275.00 to 2279.75. Its reaction down to 2275.00 is trying to reverse momentum back down.
Regardless, overbought RSIs at 2279.75 require its eventual retest. That might enable extending the rally this afternoon, but the difficulty with any trending is the usual anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.
Reversing back down to 2271.00 can’t be dismissed. Neither can extending that back toward the overnight range’s lower-end around 2266.00. Fresh highs above 2281.00 would have potential to last Thursday and Friday’s 2287.00-2289.00 higher prior lows.
Post-open Review… Sellers balk.
Pre-open and post-open selling is absorbed.
REMINDER: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AFTER NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION. THERE WILL BE NO MARKET WRAP.
The overnight drop bottomed within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down target. Its recovery peaked at this morning’s 2270.75 bias-down signal. The open’s dip to 2267.00 was recovered back up to 2270.75, and then through it.
Fresh highs at 10:15 filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2275.00 close to within 1 tick. That was the minimum reward for not selling off through the open. Additionally, holding a test of the bias-down signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2278.75 bias-up signal.
Back under 2270.75 at 10:30 would invalidate the bias signal. No requirement then to decline, just a greater vulnerability. Otherwise, sellers could be marginalized for the day.
Marginalized doesn’t mean dormant. Sellers, or buyers, may yet launch substantial efforts today. Thursday afternoons ahead of a Friday’s Employment Situation report often become paralyzed by anxiousness. But the opposite today wouldn’t be surprising since volatility preceding yesterday’s FOMC wasn’t very restrained. Neither was volatility following it, already makes Friday interesting.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AFTER NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION.
Through the prior close…
Rallying into Wednesday’s open and then surging was only able to briefly probe above the morning’s 2283.50 bias-up target. And it was unable to maintain the upward momentum, as the balance of the bias timing window reversed back down to its 2278.50 bias-up signal. Through it, too, although not decisively in time to actually trigger a synthetic bias-down signal. So, extending down sharply only tested the 2270.50 bias-down signal by 2 points, and wasn’t required to also test the morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Afternoon choppiness triggered by the FOMC policy statement attempted to break lower, but from above the morning’s low, which makes the pattern distributive and not accumulative. Bounces to 2277.00-2278.00 produced the third consecutive 2275.00 finish.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce’s reversal down to 2275.00 didn’t hesitate extending through it to attack Wednesday’s lows down to 2269.50. Another quick drop tested what had been Wednesday morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Later probing under it by 1 point — to within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down target — reacted up into Europe’s opens. Its reaction up to 2269.50 was retraced briefly to retest 2265.50, which is recovering again.
If, then…
Three consecutive closes at the same level may seem likely stability, following Monday’s opening plunge from 2281.00 down to 2263.50. But it is actually three consecutive failures to attract strong-handed buyers. That indecision gradually makes another downleg to lower lows likelier and likelier will be required. Already probing lower last night also suggests that another downleg is beginning. There’s still a small chance of holding the retest of Monday’s 2263.50 low, a very small chance. Bank of England releases minutes from its policy meeting, which might be more of a catalyst for volatility than usual. If that volatility is down, then the next lower objective would be to test 2248.50..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.75 would be likely to trigger the 2270.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2262.75 would be likely to also break under the 2264.00 bias-down target through 10:15, and to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2265.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.