Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge had held a test of resistance at the morning’s 2272.00 bias-up target. Reacting down into the noon hour to 2260.00 had held support upon filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. The balance of the session ranged up to 2266.00 resistance until it had become too late to sponsor a recovery.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s late bounce had both gravitated to 2266.00 and held its resistance, already having signaled it would hold. Sunday night’s open didn’t delay reversing down to and through Friday’s 2260.00 noon hour low. Narrowly consolidating down to 2259.00 blipped-down to touch 2258.00 at Europe’s opens. Snapping back up extended to attack 2264.00, where price has since hovered
If, then…
Expiration’s influence on Monday morning’s price action may prevent trending in either direction, unless already trending at the open. Resolving down at any time would target at least a retest of oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2253.00 low, if not also the prior week’s 2248.50 actual low since its pivotal low was already retested. Although not currently threatened, a rally’s initial objective would be to test Friday’s opening anchor above, and likely test of 2278.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2257.50 would be likely to trigger the 2261.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/21/17) …
With all of last week’s peripheral events, an actual breakout from the ongoing range would have been plausible. Holiday-shortened week, afternoon Yellen appearance, inauguration, ECB & Draghi. But rather than being catalysts for a breakout, they kept alive volatility within the range, and otherwise kept alive the range’s boundaries.
Barron’s Streetwise column attributes the rally’s pause to awaiting actual legislation that reflects President Trump’s agenda, already having sufficiently discounted the hope for it. Anxiousness ahead of earnings may have been a culprit previously, but 10% of the S&P 500 companies have reported and about 75% have beat. Perhaps a bullish reaction to earnings is only delayed. Really? Then the delayed bullish reaction would be only obligatory — temporary before ultimately reversing down.
What could produce a break either way from the ongoing range? How will we know it’s happening, and how far could or should it travel before reversing back into the range? This week’s Saturday Review addresses these conflicting signals and their origins, how they offer contextual clues toward the eventual resolution, and specific influential price objectives.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, AAPL, GS, S, MSFT, GOOGL (revisited), TXN
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. (NOTE: There’s no review next weekend)… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2276.00 | 2271.00 |
| …would target | 2280.75 | 2276.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2266.25 | 2261.50 |
| …would target | 2260.50 | 2255.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending up through expiration’s open did not define the balance of the session. Already meeting and holding the 2272.00 bias-up target was inhibiting to some degree. But that’s not what triggered dropping back down to 2260.00, essentially filling the gap back to Thursday’s close.
Ultimately, positive territory was maintained throughout. The open’s anchor is still an attraction above, as is the requirement for a new trend high close, and likely test of 2278.25. It’s interesting that the rally couldn’t exploit the opportunity for another new trend high close on a Friday, which would have further entrenched itself.
Unfinished business below remains outstanding from oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2253.00 low, and at the prior week’s 2248.50 actual low. There continues to be no particular timing requirement for either.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Saturday Review at 9:30 ET — its link will be emailed overnight.