Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Expiration in control.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The 2260.75 bias-down target would have required a test had the 2266.00 bias-down signal triggered. This is despite having tested 2260.75 already during the noon hour. Bias-down didn’t actually trigger since it was still being tested both at 1:20 and 1:30. But the noN-bias environment tested 2260.75 anyway.
Bouncing from there is now testing 2266.00 as resistance. Each afternoon bias environment exit since last Friday has rallied into the close. Today may be an exception if 2266.00 holds its test. Back under 2263.00 would instead trigger another downleg.
The open’s uptrending didn’t prevent the noon hour’s drop. So it won’t necessarily prevent a closing drop. Resuming the rally would target fresh session highs above 2272.75. Resuming the decline would target yesterday’s 2253.00 low.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having tested “higher prior lows” up to 1.0720, backing-and-filling is no longer needed before a break under 1.0605 would be credible for launching a downleg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming back above 1205.00 would target filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1214.00 open, if not also probing its 1218.50 overnight high.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
At least a third eventual higher close is required, and is in-play so long as 16.95 maintains its recovery. Back under 16.75 would target 16.15.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially bouncing slightly overnight was retraced to probe under Thursday’s lows down to 149-30. The second consecutive close under 151-12 essentially seals a top, next targeting 148-04.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday filled to Tuesday’s 53.25 close isolates the interim dip. But recovering resistance at 54.25 would allow filling gaps back up to 54.75 and 55.75. Almost any delay would reinstate the attraction below to 49.00 and 47.75.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning;s weakness didn’t retrace all of Thursday’s bounce, but the attraction down to 3.23 remained in-play. Its afternoon test now allows extending to 3.19.
Mid-day Update… Holding on, for a late re-try?
Morning’s dip recovers only positive territory.
Narrow sideways ranging between 2267.50-2270.50 persisted into the noon hour. The bottom suddenly dropped out several minutes later. Two downlegs tested 2263.00 and 2260.00. Which held coming out of the noon hour.
The 2266.00 bias-down signal was being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30 to invoke the grace period. The 2260.75 bias-down target had been tested, before bouncing back up to 2266.00 — which was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30.
This is a noN-bias environment. Extending above 2268.00 would signal the rally was resuming, targeting fresh highs. Under 2263.25 would start to suggest drifting down into the weekend, targeting yesterday’s lows and then lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s only econ report is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2277.75 | 2272.75 |
| …would target | 2283.25 | 2278.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2265.75 | 2260.75 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.