Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Is today the day?
Post-open surge threatens new high.
The overnight rally up to 2268.00 greeted the open at 2264.00. Essentially. A last-minute blip-down to 2263.00 spiked back up to attack 2268.00. Anyway, the spike didn’t slow post-open, and extended to probe the 2272.00 bias-up target by 3 ticks.
2272.00 held through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment, so a pullback has room down to its 2265.00 bias-up signal. In fact, a probe under 2268.50-2269.50 is threatening as much.
Regardless of a deeper pullback this morning, new highs are threatened, too. Just maintaining the open’s surge through 10:15 suggests any dip will recover. Back above 2270.25 would signal the rally is resuming, next targeting 2278.25.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s opening surge touched the morning’s 2269.25 bias-up signal’s resistance, then immediately reversed down. And not meekly, resembling Wednesday’s opening plunge. But Thursday morning’s drop lasted longer than just the open, falling to 2259.50. Bouncing out of the bias environment exit didn’t last much longer than the open’s surge, and didn’t resolve much differently — another plunge probed last Wednesday’s pivotal low by 2 points down to 2253.00. But the fourth consecutive bias environment’s 2:30 exit began a bounce again, this time back up to 2260.50. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late afternoon bounce extended higher into the Globex open to attack 2266.00. Hovering there through Europe’s opens eventually resolved up to a fresh high at 2268.00. Its reaction down is now trying to hold 2265.00 as support.
If, then…
Simply touching last week’s 2255.00 pivotal low all but requires testing the 2248.50 actual low. They’re not always done by the same leg, so an interim bounce isn’t unusual. Last night’s bounce could delay the lower low if maintained through the morning bias environment — similarly, rejecting the bounce could soon retest yesterday’s low and lower. Relentless overnight trending doesn’t assure extending higher post-open, and is often reversed. Regardless, this being a Friday, let alone expiration, the open’s trending could be predictive of the entire session. So, triggering bias-up, or not, could tell us where the entire session is headed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2263.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2265.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2270.00 | 2265.00 |
| …would target | 2276.75 | 2272.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2261.25 | 2256.50 |
| …would target | 2255.50 | 2250.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s break under its 2260.75 bias-down signal was no-bias trending that required being retraced. Which it was, literally at the session’s final minute. The 1:20 print at 2262.00 could be retested, too. It’s not required, but meanwhile it’s resistance.
Also meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the afternoon drop’s 2253.00 low require a retest. That could be done overnight, and retraced before Friday’s open to reverse momentum up. At least, the setup would be credible for reversing momentum up. Its dip is likelier to extend down to retest last week’s 2248.50 low.
Rallying overnight to gap up above 2265.00 would also be credible for extending higher intraday. Being expiration, its shock could trend up to new highs into the weekend. Almost any overnight rally would threaten extending higher post-open, but the burden of proof would be on buyers.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Laying traps.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment didn’t touch its 2260.75 bias-down signal in time to trigger. But it was tested well into the bias environment. And it broke sharply lower to 2253.00. This is “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced at least to 2260.75.
Only one bar probed under last week’s 2255.00 pivotal low, while also not overlapping 2255.00. And price since then has trended back up to within 1 point of 2260.75. Its attraction is almost neutralized.
Oversold RSIs at the low will want to be retested. And just touching last week’s pivotal low all but requires testing its 2248.50 actual low. Back under 2256.50 would trigger a downleg.
Otherwise, back above 2262.00 could delay the low’s retest, and its break, until another rally leg.