Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s weakness extended Wednesday’s reversal, attacking the 1.0605 sell signal. Its reaction up to 1.0665 can suffice as backing-and-filling to allow a break lower, so long as 1.0700 holds as resistance.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s dip extended down intraday Thursday to test the 1195.00 sell signal. Meanwhile, its support can launch a bounce back above 1205.00 that fills Tuesday’s opening gap at 1214.00 and even retests its 1218.50 overnight high.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down overnight tested the 16.95 “lower prior highs,” which was probed intraday to also touch the 16.75 sell signal’s confirmation. Regardless, Tuesday’s confirmed breakout still requires at least an eventual third higher close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s drop extended deeper Thursday to test relevant support at 151-12. Probed by a quarter-point intraday, closing under 151-12 essentially seals a top, while closing above it enables at least another corrective bounce first.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppiness around 51.50 persisted Thursday as the potential grew for extending lower to 48.20 and 47.00 before another rally leg could begin. Otherwise, back above 52.50 would start to suggest a bounce underway.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness, but the day’s 3.25 low was still short of filling the gap outstanding at 3.23. Its reaction up filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 3.40 close, keeping alive the lower objectives. Back above 3.50 would target 3.65.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two Fed speakers are the day’s only economic events. Volume and volatility should diminish while attention turns to the inauguration. But not too much, as this is also monthly expiration.
Janet Yellen Speaks
THU 8:00 PM ET
*Harker Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Presidential Inauguration
12:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*John C. Williams Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2273.00 | 2268.00 |
| …would target | 2278.75 | 2273.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.75 | 2260.75 |
| …would target | 2260.00 | 2255.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trying, so trying, again.
Open’s surge reverses down hard.
Yesterday’s gap up had immediately plunged and was almost as quickly recovered. 
That didn’t extend higher intraday, but neither did the open’s drop resume.
This morning’s open gapped up a little, and then surged momentarily to touch the 2269.25 bias-up signal. That reacted down, too. A little later than yesterday, and less aggressively. But almost all of the recovery from yesterday afternoon was retraced.
Both drops come from probes above prior intraday highs. This creates room to expend selling pressure before it can damage the recovery potential. Yesterday, that prevented reversing the trend down.
It’s no easier to reverse the trend down today — but it can still be tried.
An offsetting test of the 2261.50 bias-down signal is already satisfied to within 3 ticks. Probing under it during this window would be “no-bias trending” that requires recovering, if not also back to the 2264.00 10:15 print. Probing under it after the bias environment begins lapsing would not require any recovery, and could extend down to test 2248.50.
Meanwhile, back above 2265.50 would start to signal that the post-open drop would be recovered. And recovering a second consecutive post-open drop would still likely rally to new highs.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted by the remnants of an overnight rally that had probed above the intraday highs into Friday’s range up to 2268.50. Its reaction down plunged to 2258.25. Recovering only to attack the morning’s 2266.00 bias-up signal, the balance of the session was only a frustratingly narrow 3-4 point range. Actually, the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window broke higher, but only to its 61.8% range for noise up to 2267.25.No unfinished business was left outstanding, and WedEX did not form a setup.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late rally didn’t so much extend, as it tried to resume. Fluctuation around 2266.00 persisted, briefly attacking the prior night’s highs up to 2268.25. Europe’s opens saw that range’s lower-end break down to 2261.50. Its reaction is now testing 2265.00.
If, then…
This morning’s bullish scenario is the same as yesterday’s, which begins with an overnight rally. So far, no good. That will have to change soon — and quickly by a lot — to avoid the bearish scenario of probing fresh lows for the week. As it happens, that kind of change is entirely possible, with the ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi press conference now warming up. Anxiousness ahead of the ECB may be responsible for inhibiting a recovery already. But regardless of the likelihood for a new high targeting 2278.25, reacting down remains possible, which would target 2248.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2269.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.