Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.25 | 2267.00 |
| …would target | 2277.50 | 2272.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.50 | 2260.50 |
| …would target | 2260.50 | 2255.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Another brief dip.
Wide opening range triggers only no-bias.
The overnight rally to 2268.50 had reacted down to 2263.00, where yesterday’s late bounce had ended the day. The 2268.50 overnight high was retraced to within 1 tick. Despite being 2 points back above Friday’s lows, the recovery failed again.
Greeting the open 1 point under the 2266.00 bias-up signal slid quickly to 2258.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility began lapsing back at the overnight reaction’s 2263.00 low. Firming further eventually attacked the 2266.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick.But only after triggering no-bias.
Not touching the bias-down signal post-open, no offsetting test of the 2256.00 bias-down signal is required. Touching the bias-down signal 1 minute prior to the open should be noted, regardless of the opens’ slide already having expended a lot of selling pressure.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
It was a loooong time coming. Tuesday’s open had isolated Friday’s range, creating an objective to retest the 2257.50 overnight low. But the meat of the session only hovered choppily under Friday’s 2266.25 low. Then the afternoon bias environment exit plunged from 2265.00 to fulfill the 2257.50 objective. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively, but that proved sufficient to trigger a 2260.25 buy signal. Potential for the setup to probe fresh session highs was only able to firm into the close and test 2263.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late recovery soon extended higher, and relentlessly. Testing the plunge’s 2265.00 origin produced a 3-point surge, probing 2 points above Friday’s low. Already reacting down was accelerated by Europe’s opens back down to 2265.00. Consolidating there has resolved down 2 points to touch yesterday’s last-minute bounce high at 2263.00.
If, then…
Extending higher overnight wasn’t required, and not likely enough to merit a hold-long. But it was the likely bullish resolution to the late-afternoon buy signal, and it was fulfilled. Probing back into Friday’s range would be bullish for today, if maintained through the open. The current reaction down is threatening to isolate at least that part of the recovery to the overnight. The reward for rallying today is to also probe above Friday’s 2273.50 high, and probably fulfill the outstanding requirement for a new trend high close. Otherwise, resuming Tuesday’s drop would at least retest last Wednesday’s 2255.00 low — its break could point sharply lower..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.00 would be likely at least to test the 2256.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2277.25 | 2272.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2261.00 | 2256.00 |
| …would target | 2255.50 | 2250.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The 2257.50 overnight low’s retest held as support. At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively on the low. For now. Its reaction up probed above the 2260.25 buy signal, but only while also overlapping it. It wasn’t quite triggered, let alone rejected. Extending higher overnight would be credible, gapping up back above Friday’s 2266.00 low to try isolating Tuesday’s probe under it. Otherwise, resuming Tuesday’s drop would at least retest last Wednesday’s 2255.00 low, which is the range’s pivotal low whose break could point sharply lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.