Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Long-awaited.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The open had already tested this morning’s 2260.75 bias-down target. Triggering bias-down didn’t require its retest. But that wasn’t exploited by a recovery.
The open’s ~2260.00-2262.00 congestion wasn’t likely to launch an uninterrupted leg. Recovering to 2267.25 was retraced 
to 2262.00. But that wasn’t exploited by a recovery.
The noon hour consolidated narrowly at the morning’s 2266.00 bias-up signal. The afternoon bias environment was entered there, and ranged there for awhile. Not exploited, either.
So much opportunity ignored to exploit a path higher, through so many timing windows. Finally, the attraction below won out. Last night’s 2257.50 low is being tested.
Back above 2260.25 would start to suggest the selling is down. If so, then a surge fresh session highs would be possible — not the likeliest scenario, but possible. Otherwise, nothing requires trending down any deeper, but fresh lows would target 2255.00.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending the ally Sunday greeted Tuesday’s session gapping up above prior highs. Closing back under 1.0605 is still the nearest sell signal, but the pattern’s next challenge otherwise is 1.0750.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength tested the1212.00 objective up to 1219.00. Tuesday did not extend higher, but did maintain the gain to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement from last week for at least one more fresh high close. An immediate reversal down isn’t likely to extend without at least filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1212.00 open.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.95 resistance which had been tested and retested was probed higher overnight and tested 17.25 intraday. Closing under 16.95 would indicated the rally’s momentum had lapsed already, but a close under 16.95 would still target 16.15.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength attacked 154-00 but held 153-22 post-open. Reversing back down through a sell signal triggered under 153-06 was recovered from 152-22. Closing Wednesday above 153-26 would launch a substantial rally, but the pattern is otherwise topping.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially gapping up Tuesday to Thursday’s ~53.50 high was retraced to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 52.40 close. Holding the test as support keeps alive the likelihood for filling gaps outstanding from 53.80 and 54.80 before resuming the downleg. So, dipping back down to 52.40 Tuesday afternoon threatened the recovery.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight strength as high as 3.50 was nevertheless retraced to open Tuesday at 3.40 resistance. Closing higher would trigger a breakout, but otherwise the attractions below at 3.23 and 3.19 remain outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Another holiday?
Narrow, dull ranging.
This morning’s recovery up to 2267.25 had failed to trigger the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Any higher any later (or earlier, since the signal triggered late) would have extended through Friday’s highs.
The 2260.75 bias-down target was tested already, so it didn’t require a retest. And it didn’t t become unfinished business below. But the noon hour didn’t exploit that with a rally, and only ranged narrowly.
That ranging has only narrowed. Now the afternoon bias environment triggered no-bias, too. Which keeps alive the potential for probing fresh post-open lows, anyway.
Fresh lows aren’t required. Neither is a rally. Apparently, a pulse isn’t required, either. The narrow range does suggest the first trending attempt will be a false break, likely to then reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. In any case, not a great trading environment until this range is broken.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The reaction to Wednesday’s pre-open CPI may offer an example of how the market will react to the morning’s subsequent econ reports. The afternoon’s Beige Book release hasn’t had the impact it once had, but the afternoon will still be jumpy as Fed Chair Yellen speaks during the final hour.
John C. Williams Speaks
TUE 6:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2274.25 | 2269.00 |
| …would target | 2279.50 | 2274.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2266.50 | 2261.50 |
| …would target | 2261.25 | 2256.00 |
| Signal status:no NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.