Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Sellers marked it.
Friday’s range avoids recovery.
The overnight bounce from 2257.50 had touched Friday’s 2266.25 low. Which held. It’s also this morning’s bias-down signal. Reacting down greeted the open at 2262.50. The opening 15 minutes trended down deeper, and eventually 2260.00 was tested.
So, the probe under Friday’s low was not isolated to the overnight. A complete retracement of the overnight bounce from 2257.50 became likely.
That didn’t prevent a bounce. A big bounce. The biggest bounce possible, without reversing the trend back up — holding a test of the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Actually, the grace period was invoked, but its exit triggered late bias-down.
The alternative would have been bullish. Very bullish. The most bullish possible. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters.
Instead, the bullish scenario depends on ignoring the bias-down signal. Which is possible, since it triggered late, and since it’s 2260.75 target has been met.
Back under 2264.00 should confirm the 2260.75 bias-down target will be met. Its test is likely also to visit 2257.50. Otherwise, just hovering around 2266.00 until the bias environment begins lapsing could start rallying back into Friday’s range, and through it.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge from 2267.00 quickly extended to 2273.50. And that was the end of that. The morning’s bias environment ranged narrowly between 2270.00-2272.50. A quick dip into noon was followed by a drop into the afternoon bias environment exit attacking 2266.00. That was still in positive territory, despite so much time having been spent either consolidating or declining. Being a Friday, the balance of the session firmed back up to 2273.00 through the futures close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open dipped immediately back down to 2268.00. Drifting down to test 2265.00 through Europe’s opens Monday formed a low that was only pierced until Europe’s opens Tuesday. Anxiousness ahead of British Prime Minister May’s speech drove markets lower. Its low (so far) was a blip-down to 2257.50 which is now reacting back up to test 2265.00.
If, then…
PROGRAMMING NOTE: The pre-open Market Tour is now available only by recording. Scroll to the top of this blog post for its link. Then join us in the chaRTroom by 9:15 ET for any updates and your Q&A…
The 2257.50 overnight low has been relevant support during the current ranging. As such, it was a Pivotal Low last Wednesday, i.e. a fresh low was recovered to a fresh high. Retesting 2257.50 post-open would not be bullish. Retesting it overnight is only a threat. Meanwhile, its test underscores the vulnerability to launching a more durable downleg upon finally probing a fresh high. Having said that, the 2265.00–2266.25 range between Thursday’s close and Friday’s low can mark the difference between rallying this morning, or declining.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2270.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2266.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2263.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2259.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2260.75 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.
Globex chaRTroom login
Globex re-opens normally at 6:00pm ET today, which you can monitor at the link below. Sunday night’s session went through 1:00pm ET today. Its 2270.00 open immediately dipped 2 points, and gradually slid another 3 points into Europe’s opens. Ranging sideways since then was resisted by 2268.00, and settled back at the overnight session‘s lows.
Meanwhile, the pre-open Tour will begin its new schedule — I’ll record it and email you its link to watch at your convenience, two hours before the open. I’ll be available starting 15 minutes before the open to begin addressing questions.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2279.25 | 2274.25 |
| …would target | 2284.25 | 2279.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2270.75 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2265.75 | 2260.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Theresa May speaks about Brexit at some time Tuesday. Sterling has finally fulfilled its retest of the flash-crash low, which is natural support, but unlikely to launch an immediate recovery. Two Fed speakers start a busy week of appearances.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:45 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET