Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s traction was fulfilled not just by Friday morning’s surge, but by maintaining its probe above Thursday’s highs. Thursday’s entire session had developed in negative territory, so it was a weak base for launching a rally. Perhaps that was as responsible as pre-holiday illiquidity for inhibiting the surge from extending higher. Regardless, it will be partially responsible for causing this leg to reverse down sharply if first extends to probe new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend. Try to enjoy the weekend, anyway!
Pre-close View… On the vine.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
the afternoon bias environment exit printed another slightly lower low, finally actually piercing yesterday afternoon’s highs. But not by much, and not for long. Reacting up entered the final hour back above yesterday’s high, and back above the overnight highs. That hasn’t attracted any new buyers, as the three-day weekend’s illiquidity is inhibiting sponsorship in either direction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already gapping up Thursday was premature for extending Wednesday’s recovery. In fact, the session didn’t extend any higher. And now Friday has also fluctuated narrowly. None of which actually reverses the trend back down, which would be triggered back under 1.0705.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break above 1187.50 had triggered a surge. Extending up to 1206.00-1207.00 Thursday was not optimal confirmation. Friday’s reaction down touched 1187.50 as support, which must hold to produce a fresh high targeting 1212.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s dip under 16.75 extended down to retest the original 16.60 sell signal whose test earlier this week had reacted up to retest the 16.95 high. Friday’s test reacted up to test 16.75, whose break would target 16.15.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday afternoon’s dive had held support, so an initial bounce was likely Friday, and it was likely to fail. The morning followed this path, testing resistance intraday up to 153-20 and reversing down sharply through the morning. into negative territory Friday afternoon to attack 151-12. A topping pattern has fully formed.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping slightly Friday helped to further confirm that Thursday’s gap up had gained no traction. A fresh recovery high of some sort remains likely, but not likely to extend.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging persisted Thursday without difference from Wednesday. The bounce to 3.40 has held for a second day, still likelier to fill gaps below than to extend higher first.
Mid-day Update… Stuck, up.
Open’s surge has backed-and-filled, after all.
An opening surge of such great proportion would typically back-and-fill into the afternoon, on any other day except Friday. Today’s post-surge action hovered just under its high. The no-bias seemed suspiciously noN-bias when it triggered, and hovering was a typically noN-bias characteristic.
But also typical for noN-bias hovering is to exit the bias environment trending through the bias signal. That didn’t happen. Only another brief dip to a fresh low — still above yesterday’s range.
A durable downleg would have begun already. So, a later downleg would likely recover. No downleg is required, and neither is the rally required to resume. But resuming the rally this afternoon remains the likelier resolution.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 16, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed in the U.S. for Martin Luther King, Jr. day. Globex opens normally Sunday night .
Globex open
SUN 6:00 PM ET
Early Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET