Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2278.50 | 2273.25 |
| …would target | 2283.25 | 2278.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2266.00 | 2260.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Remains to be seen.
Bias-up narrowly avoided. Too narrowly.
Delaying a post-open rally would have been likely in order to stretch the rubber band down to 2257.50. There was no reason to delay rallying if the pre-open dip to 2262.75 were going to suffice in its place.
Post-open action did immediately surge. Filling the gap at Wednesday’s 2270.25 close was worked through gradually up to 2273.50. But the 2271.50 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to trigger the grace period.
Bias-up did not trigger, but did it hold? Probing under it down to 2269.50 wasn’t recovered at 10:30, which is a “late no-bias.” This puts into play an offsetting test of the 2262.00 bias-down signal.
One important observation to that: A 1-tick difference prevented touching the bias-up signal at 10:30. That 1 tick prevented triggering noN-bias, which would have prevented putting into play any target.
Fluctuating narrowly for the next half-hour would be just like a typical noN-bias. And a typical noN-bias would then often behave as if it has just triggered bias-up. Regardless of its timing, I’m giving a benefit of the doubt to any break beyond a 2269.50-2272.50 range. A valid break either way would likely extend into the afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The narrow 2264.25-2266.25 overnight range had tried to breakout. It came late and was shallow, barely piercing yesterday’s 2267.25 last-minute high. And it was soon reversed back into the overnight range. Now the 8:30 econ reports have reversed the reaction even deeper, albeit momentarily, down to 2262.75.
Could that be enough of a rubber band stretch, so the post-open action won’t need a similar dip to resume the rally? Possibly. Already, the open is being greeted back at yesterday’s 2267.25 last-minute high. Not exploiting the opportunity would likely mean a deeper post-open dip.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… That deer in headlights look.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 6 points Thursday to 2264.50 extended through the morning. The prior three sessions’ lows were probed down to 2248.50. Already reversing up before noon, the entire afternoon rallied to a last-minute touch of 2267.00. Late-afternoon swings all overlapped the 2264.50 open, stopping short of Wednesday’s 2271.50 close. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
More like, overnight lack-of-action. Thursday’s huge swing went immediately into hibernation. Ranging very narrowly between 2264.25-2266.25 has only recently tried probing higher. The probe was even shallower than than the range. Barely piercing yesterday’s last-minute high by a couple of ticks proved untenable, as price soon dipped back into the narrow range.
If, then…
This morning’s bullish scenario would already be rallying through Friday’s open, and overcome the gap at Wednesday’s 2270.50 close. Recovering it could easily gravitate back up to the highs, with counter-trend sponsorship difficult to generate ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Sponsorship is difficult to generate all around, and 2271.50 is meanwhile resistance. Immediately rallying out of yesterday’s entirely negative session would already be suspect. A more bullish scenario would back-and-fill initially, with a relatively shallow temporary dip to 2257.50. The bearish scenario would extend under Thursday’s noon hour “lower prior highs” at 2254.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2271.50 bias-us up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-down signal. The same 2266.00 level serves as both bias signal’s preliminary indicator because of the extremely narrow overnight rally between them.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2276.75 | 2271.50 |
| …would target | 2282.50 | 2277.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2267.00 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2261.75 | 2256.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.