Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s rally up to 2757.00 had formed a “new Globex trend extreme,” which required intraday retest. Reacting down 10 points to test Tuesday’s highs still recovered the overnight high post-open, and then through it to 2762.00. The bear market rally’s last calculable target at 2751.00 was neutralized, along with its room for noise up to 2757.00.
But was the target rejected. Rallying into the last half-hour attacked 2760.00, but reacted back down to 2751.00 and closed under 2757.00. That late dip prevented signaling the rally’s next higher objective is in-play. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 2762.00 highs would help to reinstate the upside.
A lot of buying pressure was expended to hover above Tuesday’s highs, and then to probe back above 2757.00. Wasted buying pressure, for not maintaining the late rally. Also wasted for the closing action still overlapping the 2753.00 opening print — which reflects inertia, and often can occur at a trend extreme.
WedEX triggered actively bullish. Maintaining a gap down Thursday under Wednesday’s 2748.00 low could convert the signal by proxy to passively bearish. None of which would influence price action until Friday afternoon, regardless of whether price had rallied or collapsed in the interim.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce above 1.1333 peaked just under the 1.1375 buy signal. Already reacting down overnight gapped open under 1.1333 Wednesday, filling the gap back to Monday’s 1.1305 close. Eearly strength Thursday back above 1.1333 would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Waiting for Wednesday’s open before retesting the 1317.00 buy signal didn’t make it any likelier to extend higher, but it left no “unfinished business” below if the recovery were to extend higher Thursday. And having tested the buy signal up to 1321.70 intraday, its retest Thursday should extend higher if further lows will be avoided.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness retested recent pullback lows before bouncing after Wednesday’s open up to the 15.80 buy signal. Its reaction back down to 15.65 support keeps the door open to one more rally attempt.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet more overnight weakness and fresh pullback lows down to 145-16 increased the difficulty for resuming the recent rally, while also allowing a positive close above 146-00 Wednesday to at least end the pullback.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s probes above the 53.30 buy signal had ultimately ended too low to trigger, and too low to greet Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. But strength held up overnight to gap up Wednesday, and to leverage the morning’s favorable knee-jerk reaction into fresh highs testing 54.60.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down into Friday’s range down to 2.60 did what Tuesday’s shallower dip did not, by testing “lower prior highs.” But the buy signal remains at 2.70. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Down, but holding up.
Late-morning slide still hovering above yesterday’s highs.
The 2755.00 bias-up target had been probed up to 2762.00 during the open. 
But it was only being overlapped at 10:15 which didn’t renew the bias-up signal. The earlier high was attacked to within 1 point, and already drifting lower when a headline (Rubio’s buyback tax proposal) triggered a steeper, deeper slide to 2748.00.
Exiting the bias environment above 2755.00-2757.00 would have gone a long way to suggesting the bear market rally was something more. Reacting down instead doesn’t default to being bearish. Two more timing windows have now elapsed without even probing back into yesterday’s range.
Hovering above yesterday’s range is potentially bullish, but optimism becomes “ineffectual optimism” as more time elapses without exploiting the posture.
The noon hour ranged back up to 2753.00, which is being tested now. The afternoon’s no-bias environment could test its 2757.00 bias-up signal just as noise. But back under 2749.50 would start to signal that buying pressure was fully expended, and another downleg was getting underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 14, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ reports are high-profile, but only PPI is reliably influential to price action. Still, three reports released simultaneously can trigger volatility. The late-morning Fed speaker can be influential, too.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
11:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2757.50 | 2757.00 |
| …would target | 2764.25 | 2763.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2749.25 | 2748.75 |
| …would target | 2741.25 | 2740.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.