Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Overnight high’s retest isn’t rejected.
The complexity of last night’s probe above Tuesday’s highs up to 2757.00 had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest, and is often retested the same day. 
Recovering 2753.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would target 2757.00, if not also higher. It was probed up to 2762.00.
Reacting down to attack 2753.00 only overlapped the 2755.00 bias-up target through the 10:15 bias timing window. This avoided renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, but not bias-up renewed, which would have added a degree of confidence in extending higher. That hasn’t prevented at least trying to resume the rally, now testing 2761.00.
The bigger picture bear market rally limitation requires closing back under 2757.00 and preferably also under 2751.00. Topping requires a retest of the 2753.00 opening print after a post-open dip under Tuesday’s highs. Reversing the trend down requires at least closing negative under 2743.50. Today’s WedEX should be a passive bearish setup to reflect an unsustainable bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, the intraday and bigger picture each allow extending higher. Maintaining 2757.00‘s recovery through the bias environment exit would next target 2769.00. Back under 2755.00 at any time would start putting into play a dip back into yesterday’s range.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big targets met, holding.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
An overnight rally that had far exceeded its bias-up parameters greeted Tuesday’s open at its 2727.75 renewed bias-up target. The rally resumed with little delay, and extended sharply higher to test its next objective at 2743.50 soon after noon. The bias environment’s probe higher up to 2748.00 was retraced to end the day still testing 2743.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally hardly delayed resuming, and suddenly spiked up 10 points to attack 2756.00. Its reaction down was supported by 2751.00 as price eked its way back up through midnight to eventually touch 2757.00. There was complexity, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that is all but required to be retested intraday. Trending back down into and out of Europe’s opens has pierced 1 point under yesterday’s 2747.75 high as support, reacting up to 2751.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
It’s important to note how this current upleg has unfolded: Closing above 2721.00 for its second consecutive session last Tuesday had established that one more higher target was in-play for the bear market rally — 2751.00, with room for noise up to 2757.00. Rather than extend, the rally immediately began retracing, resting on the laurels of a higher attraction to rescue it. Pullback objectives were met down to 2708.00-2709.00 and 2788.00-2690.00, and even exceeded to the next lower support at 2681.00-2682.00 Friday morning before the rally resumed. And it resumed without correction on the way to meeting its 2751.00 and 2757.00 targets overnight. Their Intraday test is preferable, and likely, while holding above yesterday’s range. Reversing back under yesterday’s last relative lows at 2741.50 and 2738.75 would start reversing the trend back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2751.00 would be likely to trigger the 2748.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2743.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2749.75 | 2748.75 |
| …would target | 2756.00 | 2755.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2739.75 | 2739.00 |
| …would target | 2733.75 | 2733.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s rally up to 2721.50 wasn’t able to escape the orbit of 2708.00-2709.00. Its room for noise at 2705.50-2712.00 was re-entered soon after Monday’s open, and contained the balance of the session. But that only delayed Sunday night’s intent, and Monday night’s rally compensated for the delay.
Bias-up parameters had been far exceeded overnight, but Tuesday’s open was greeted at the 2727.75 renewed bias-up target. While also testing “higher prior lows” from the Tue-Wed consolidation at last week’s highs. After having trended relentlessly overnight. All of which was entirely vulnerable to losing the rally’s sponsorship. But reinforcements arrived immediately to extend the rally.
The ultimate objective at 2751.00 was attacked to within 3 points during Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment. Its shallow correction to 2741.50 reacted back up into the close. Wednesday’s peak liquidity ahead of the three-day holiday weekend offers a template that both fulfills rejects the higher objective before entering the noon hour. Maintaining higher highs into the afternoon would be much more difficult to reverse down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s fresh lows filled the three-week old low close’s gap and probed its intraday lows. After probing even lower overnight, closing back above 1.1333 would be credible for at least starting to form a bottom. Probing it Tuesday attacked 1.1375 whose recovery would signal the trend had reversed back up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back down to Thursday’s prior lows had held to keep the door open for triggering the 1317.00 buy signal. It was tested through Tuesday’s open, but held for a reaction that tested Monday’s 1311.00 close and at least neutralized its reaction below.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s retest of Thursday’s prior lows had kept open the door for another attempt at triggering the 15.80 buy signal. Already testing the buy signal before Tuesday’s open, its post-open reaction only dipped to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 15.65 close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 146-10/146-16 pullback limit’s test on Monday gave way overnight to probe fresh pullback lows down to 146-00. The gap down’s reaction blipped-up to 146-16, only to revisit the open’s low, and lower to 145-26. A recovery probably can’t tolerate much further delay beyond Wednesday morning.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming into Tuesday’s open had probed the 53.20 buy signal and tested 54.00 to suggest the two prior sessions’ lows were accumulative, and that the rally is resuming. Closing above 53.20 would greet Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s surge back up to 2.75 resistance had corrected overnight to at least attack Friday’s 2.60 “lower prior highs” before attempting to rally again Tuesday morning. Just closing above 2.70 would start to signal a bottom is forming.