Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… One more for the road.
Pullback low’s timing is extended.
Opening at the 2264.00 bias-down signal soon broke lower to test the 2258.25 bias-down target. Consolidating there into the second half-hour, plunging to within 3 ticks of the next likely support at 2250.50.
A bounce to 2255.50.has now resolved down to probe under 2250.50 by 3 ticks. And now lower.
Regardless of various interim support along the way down, recall that the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2247.50. Room for noise under it down to 2245.25. As relevant is probing under yesterday morning’s low, which makes the pullback likely to extend into this afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The site was offline momentarily due to an issue at its host. The link to this morning’s recording is below. Currently, the 2264.00 bias-down signal has been broken, and so has its 2258.25 bias-down target. The next likely support at 2250.50 has been attacked to within 3 ticks. But the more likely objective is 2247.50. And probing under yesterday morning’s low has made the pullback likely to extend into this afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Half-step forward, tip-toe back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon’s 2255.75 low had attacked the morning’s low to within 3 ticks, while retesting the afternoon’s 2256.75 bias-down target. Its reaction extended higher through the close, attacking 2272.00 to within 1 tick — a relevant level that happens also to be last Friday’s trend high close. Oversold 1-minute RSI at the low was narrowly avoided. The intraday recovery didn’t gain traction only because the noon hour’s high wasn’t recovered early enough.
Overnight action’s new info…
No matter the potential or even the likelihood for rallying intraday Thursday, the path higher was vulnerable to an overnight drawdown. Defined by this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down signal, the relentless overnight pullback has twice tested this limit. The second test is now bouncing from 2260.75.
If, then…
Sooo close, in two regards. First, closing yesterday above 2272.00 wouldn’t have been any likelier to avoid an overnight dip, but it would have been likelier to resume yesterday afternoon’s rally this morning. Second, yesterday’s high touched last Friday’s new trend high close, and yesterday’s close was within 1 point of it. A new trend high close remains outstanding, and there’s no assurance of its timing. As the overnight pullback shows, even the proximity to prior highs doesn’t ensure extending higher. Even probing new highs won’t ensure closing higher. Holding a test of this morning’s bias-down signal (now being tested) would at least make new highs likely intraday. While triggering bias-down would likely only delay new highs, that delay is still vulnerable to probing under yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2260.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2278.25 | 2273.00 |
| …would target | 2283.50 | 2278.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2269.25 | 2264.00 |
| …would target | 2263.50 | 2258.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The recovery from this afternoon’s 2255.75-2256.75 lows extended higher through the close, and attacked 2272.00 to within 1 tick. That level had been the likely objective of Tuesday afternoon’s false break higher. It was the potential attraction to rallying Tuesday night, had a rally ever gotten underway. More important than resistance, it is the delineation between rallying to new highs, and rejecting new highs. If ever new highs above 2278.00 were tested, then closing any day back under 2272.00 would be another signal of a top forming. There’s still a new trend high close likely in the mix, but the market usually finds a way to satisfy all requirements before launching a reversal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.