Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Last chance to floor the gas.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The final hour’s entry is probing fresh afternoon highs up to 2267.50. That’s above the bias environment’s high. But the rally isn’t gaining traction because the noon hour’s 2268.00 high is higher.
Recovering 2268.00 is the final hurdle to rallying into the close. Recovering it through 3:20 would have been preferable to only piercing it, so back under 2266.00 would suggest no recovery.
Rallying further to close above this morning’s highs would suggest the pullback did end with Wednesday morning’s low. And having ended the pullback, new highs would be in-play. Back under 2263.00 would instead suggest the pullback is extending down into tomorrow afternoon.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially gapping down Wednesday extended lower to test 1.0505-1.0525 support down to 1.0480 whose break would have targeted lower lows. But the morning finished wildly, surging back up to Tuesday’s 1.0585 close and higher to 1.0650. Momentum didn’t reverse up, and another test of 1.0505-1.0525 can’t be dismissed.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight to fresh highs testing 1191.00 was reversed down intraday Wednesday to attack 1174.50 down to 1177.00. The reversal was still recovered to fresh highs attacking 1200.00 which now allows room back down to 1180.50 before reversing momentum down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Wednesday to 16.60 held instead of breaking, which prevented putting into play a test of 16.15. The dip was largely recovered, although not entirely back up to 16.95, so not yet dismissing another downdraft.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A fresh high was likely regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution, which Wednesday morning’s surge fulfilled up to 153-06/153-12. Closing back under 152-16/152-20 would now reverse the trend back down.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Wednesday wasn’t likely to extend higher, not until an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down on the EIA report filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 50.90 close. The balance of the morning rallied sharply, back up to Monday’s opening sell signal at 52.70. The pattern resembles a Pivot Reversal which can reverse up for multiple sessions unless rejected at Thursday’s open.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Narrow sideways ranging didn’t extend Tuesday’s bounce, let alone trigger the 3.40 buy signal. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Loose lips sink make buying opportunities.
Unexpected comments trigger massive volatility.
Trump commented this morning on drugs costs. It was immediately influential and very productive, sending price down quickly and a lot, 
from testing 2266.00 down to 2255.00.. It was also arbitrary, and ultimately recovered back to its origin.
A bigger detour like yesterday morning’s bounce was trying to trigger when the comments were made. The drop’s complete recovery didn’t resume the rally attempt where left off. Instead another drop has triggered (and already fulfilled) this afternoon’s 2262.00 and 2256.75 bias-down parameters.
Recovering Trump’s artificially-induced downleg was all but required. Resuming the leg preceding it is not required, at all. But it can be. The morning’s 2261.25 bias objective was fulfilled by the Trump plunge along with its 2257.50 bias-down target. This afternoon’s bias-down already met its 2256.75 target. And the pullback had potential to bottom Wednesday morning.
We still don’t know whether Tuesday morning’s bounce may have extended the timing for a pullback low to Thursday afternoon. Or whether its objective may have extended down to 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. Any fresh low would suggest as much. But rallying this afternoon instead of extending the pullback would suggest it had ended, with new highs in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Four Fed speakers and a 30-year auction compete with almost no other econ report Thursday. Jobless Claims has not influenced price action in a long time .
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Harker Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Evans Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
8:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Bullard Speaks
1:15 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2276.75 | 2271.50 |
| …would target | 2282.75 | 2277.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2267.25 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2262.00 | 2256.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.