Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Bounced it.
Bias-up signal tested, thrice. Held, twice.
Rallying this morning required buyers to be productive almost immediately. Even that could have been absorbed by sellers,
so long as the 2267.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And especially so long as the bounce was reversed back under 2266.00.
The open didn’t firm immediately, but it firmed. And it tested 2267.25, then reversed down to 2264.00 as no-bias was triggered. Putting into play the offsetting test of the 2261.25 bias-down signal didn’t prevent retesting 2267.25. It held again through 10:30.
The no-bias environment triggered, and avoided invalidation, but not for lack of proximity. The 2267.25 bias-up signal must now define this window’s upper-end. So, probing above it would be no-bias trending.
It’s now being pierced by almost 2 points, but not yet above its 3-minute high
I’m willing to give the fresh high some benefit of the doubt for staging another detour like yesterday morning. Regardless, I would be ready to reverse short back under 2266.00, at the latest.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last attack on the 2264.50 overnight high reacted down to 2260.75. That largely retraced the last overnight bounce. And now that dip has been largely recovered to attack 2264.50. Fresh highs up to 2266.00 could be probed before beginning to suggest overnight lows won’t be retested, or broken on the way down to 2257.50 and lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Sellers at the gates, again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Probing under Monday’s 2263.50 intraday low was isolated to the overnight by recovering it before Tuesday’s open. Which would have been bullish the recovery were maintained post-open, but it wasn’t. The open’s dip retested the 2259.50 overnight low. That bearish setup didn’t prevent rallying back into positive territory at 2274.00, but it did prevent maintaining the rally. Tuesday afternoon retraced retraced it back down to the opening range’s upper-end at 2263.25. A late bounce was also retraced down to 2263.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially ranging sideways around the close up to 2265.50, a dip soon attacked the 2259.50 intraday low to within 1 tick. Ranging sideways at the lows through Europe’s opens finally bounced back to the open’s 2265.50 high. And slightly back above Tuesday’s intraday low.
If, then…
The upper-end of Tuesday’s opening range was retraced by the afternoon’s drop. That’s not much of a consequence for weak-handed sponsorship. Probing under the retracement’s 2263.25 low was still likely, as was retesting Tuesday morning’s 2259.50 low. Both were done Tuesday night, essentially, as last night’s low stopped 1 tick “optimistically short” of the prior lows. Not being a new low, opening positively this morning’s can’t isolate it back above Tuesday afternoon’s 2263.25 low. It’s still early enough to recover further, and to open back above yesterday’s late 2269.25 bounce. That could be rewarded by extending to 2272.00 and then to new highs. Otherwise, an actual fresh low at 2257.50 is likely. And Tuesday’s intraday bounce may have lengthened the timing of this pullback’s low beyond this morning. As well, its likelier target is at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2258.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon’s drop from 2274.00 tested Monday’s lows down to 2263.25. That was essentially the upper-end of Tuesday morning’s opening range. That opening range had prevented isolating the overnight probe under Monday’s lows. And that was bearish. Clearly, not bearish in extending further down, but bearish in forcing a rally to retrace.
Only retracing? And, only retracing to the opening range’s upper-end? That’s hardly a consequence. Probing under 2263.25 is still likely. Retesting the open’s 2259.50 low is likely, too. Probing under 2257.50 would be likely to resume Tuesday’s opening decline (which was trying to resume Monday’s gap down) and target at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. Bouncing first could peak at 2272.00, or else probe new highs — if not also produce a new high close that neutralizes all upside attractions.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.75 | 2267.25 |
| …would target | 2278.50 | 2273.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2266.50 | 2261.25 |
| …would target | 2262.00 | 2256.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.