Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… That unstable base.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The noon hour’s probe above this morning’s 2271.50 objective to 2274.00 could have extended higher.
But there was no requirement. And 2271.50 was retraced coming out of the noon hour. The upside momentum was not reinforced.
A break lower extended down sharply to 2263.25. That’s essentially yesterday’s low, which is natural support. And the no-bias environment’s probe under the 2266.75 bias-down signal was “no-bias trending” that required being retraced.
2266.75 has now held a couple of tests. Much higher would start to reverse momentum up into the close. Otherwise, almost any fresh low would resume the decline to fresh lows intraday.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s fluctuation around 1.0605 leaves no reason to further delay breaking back under 1.0505-1.0525 to resume the decline, targeting at least the 1.0435 area.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh highs Tuesday was retraced to close flat-to-lower at or under 1184.20, but not back under 1180.50 to resume the decline. Its break Wednesday would still be credible, especially if confirmed under 1174.50. Closing above 1187.50 would launch a new rally leg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retracing Tuesday’s fresh highs at 16.95 back under 16.67 would again target 16.15, and potentially deeper to compensate for the detour. Closing above 16.95 could marginalize sellers for a much larger rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Opening weaker Tuesday slid lower intraday, failing to confirm or validate Monday’s gap up that had failed already to extend higher intraday. Back under 152-02 and 151-24 would launch a new downleg targeting 151-12 and lower. Closing above 152-30 would instead resume the rally.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s break under the 52.70 sell signal was extended down almost immediately at Tuesday’s open to test 50.85. The second consecutive lower close isn’t a breakout, but does make at least a fresh intraday low likely
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight gapped back up Tuesday above 3.19 and extended higher intraday to 3.27, still short of the 3.40 buy signal. An attraction to filling the gap back down to Monday’s 3.10 close will inhibit the buy signal from triggering.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or influential econ report is due Wednesday, although EIA triggered a reaction last week .
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Dudley speaks
1:20 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Definitely not down, or out.
Morning rally fulfills its objective. Noon hour probing higher.
This morning’s 2263.00 bias-down signal did not trigger. Its grace period triggered late no-bias. It was by only a 2-tick margin, and not a new post-open high. So, it wasn’t optimal, but it was no-bias, and it put into play an offsetting test of the 2271.50 bias-up signal. It was met before noon.
So, what about the bearish open? Despite being productive, dropping 5 points to touch the overnight low, it didn’t extend down, and didn’t prevent rallying. It also didn’t leave unfinished business below. But it wasn’t rejected. We’ll come back to that.
2271.50 was still being tested at noon. So was the peak of yesterday morning’s bounce. And the gap back up to Friday’s close was filled, also holding at noon. Entering the noon hour any higher would have been bullish. An attraction above at 2275.50 is helping to attract price higher — it’s not in-play, but it’s the next higher objective if the noon hour isn’t exited back under the last relative low.
The last relative low is 2269.50, and its break would start to signal a reversal down. Its objective would be to retest this morning’s low. Its structural weakness already suggests the rally from it won’t last. New highs won’t negate the structural weakness.
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2278.50 | 2273.00 |
| …would target | 2283.50 | 2278.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2272.00 | 2266.75 |
| …would target | 2266.50 | 2261.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.