Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Dangling over the crevasse.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The afternoon range probed lower to test 2264.00. Consolidating back up to 2266.00 for the past 60-90 minutes just missed an opportunity to reverse up. But the final hour wasn’t entered high enough.
Now the 3:10-3:20 proxy window is opening. Extending above 2266.75 could still reverse up. And it had better reverse up quickly, because downtrending into Wednesday morning is growing in likelihood.
Any credible rally should recover to fresh post-open highs above 2271.00. Unfinished business above at 2275.50 and a new trend high close remain outstanding regardless.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Monday back up to 1.0605 resistance must reverse down into a deeper downleg to avoid fresh highs. Back under 1.0505-1.0525 would signal the reversal down is underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back up Monday to the 1180.50 sell signal that had triggered Friday was later recovered to probe the 1184.40 target that had been fulfilled already Thursday. Still testing it through the close prevented reversing momentum up, and back under 1180.50 would be as credible for launching a new downleg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s bounce attacked Thursday’s high up to the 16.75 area, which isn’t allowed to close any higher Tuesday if a pullback to 16.15 remains in-play.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s rally gapped up Monday to attack Friday morning’s high up to what had been its 152-26 pullback limit. Holding it and not closing above 152-30 maintains the potential for another downleg much deeper under the 151-17 interim low.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Monday to the 52.70 sell signal extended intraday to test 52.15. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm a deeper detour likely before retesting last Friday’s gap up.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap down to the decline’s 3.19 target that Thursday had tested already was extended intraday to test 3.11. The buy signal may be lowered from 3.40, but not until after first forming a reversal setup Tuesday.
Mid-day Update… Stuck in a rut.
Post-open bounce stops short. And then stops.
Gapping down to 2268.00 and extended down to 2263.50 was recovered during the morning bias environment back up to 2270.25. That’s 1 points short of filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. So, pessimistically short.
The noon hour and the afternoon bias environment have ranged back down to 2266.00. Stuck in negative territory, but not extending down. So, ineffectual pessimism.
Each is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Potentially, because it must be exploited within certain time frames, like a timing window’s exit. A timing window is within view of exiting now, and fresh afternoon lows have touched 2264.50.
Any deeper through the bottom of the hour could trend down into Wednesday morning. Back above 2267.75 by the top of the hour would more likely reverse into positive territory, targeting at least this morning’s “unfinished business above” at 2275.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s jobs openings report is the day’s only item. It follows Friday’s Employment Situation report, which itself had generated only a limited reaction .
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2275.75 | 2270.50 |
| …would target | 2280.75 | 2275.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2269.50 | 2264.25 |
| …would target | 2264.25 | 2259.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.