Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… More distribution.
Overnight slide extends, to a point.
Fresh lows were tested pre-open down to 2267.25. The slide’s slope immediately steepened on the way down to 2263.50. Its reaction back up to 2267.25 held, and defined fluctuation around the 2265.50 bias-down signal.
2265.50 was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It happened to be recovered through 10:30 to trigger late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2275.50 bias-up signal is in-play.
The bullish scenario is that these two most recent thrusts downward reflect distribution. No argument from me. But they’re still digging deeply enough early enough for long enough to reflect strong hands reversing the trend down.
Back under 2264.25 would suggest otherwise. The late signal hasn’t yet produced a fresh post-open high, so its objective would be moot. And a multi-session downleg would likely be underway.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to 2267.75 reacted up to 2270.50. But only temporarily. Retracing it entirely back to the bounce’s origin is now poised to probe lower. The bias-down signal is only about 2 points lower, and holding its test by 10:15 to trigger no-bias could be bullish, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. While that wouldn’t be assured of extending, let alone of being fulfilled, triggering bias-down would more likely extend into a deeper pullback.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Detour beginning?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
While all eyes have been on Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point, S&Ps fulfilled our long-awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high. Its 2275.50 objective was probed up to 2277.00 during the noon hour. The balance of the afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00, and then another couple of points lower into the close. Closing above 2275.50 would have put into play the next higher objective, but there’s still room for noise up to 2278.25. Meanwhile, also holding the 2273.00 prior high robs the rally of some momentum. But Friday’s close was the trend’s highest, yet.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open began with an errant tick touching 2270.50, and then reversed up steadily into Europe’s opens. Attacking 2275.50 resistance to within 1 tick was vulnerable, and that vulnerability has resulted in a 7-1/2 point slide to 2267.75.
If, then…
New trend high closes on Fridays require at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible. Which doesn’t prevent a near-term correction from beginning And if a correction is beginning, it may last only several day, or else it could last several weeks. Its first day can help to forecast which. Gapping down doesn’t prevent recovering intraday — in fact, the 2268.50 target of Friday’s late sell signal triggered under 2273.75 was met and held (so far) overnight. Recovering today can’t yet be dismissed, let alone already producing that next higher close. Regardless, fresh highs could be probed today without being maintained through the close. Otherwise, triggering a bias-down today would be likely if a correction is already underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2275.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2268.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2265.50 bias-down signal.
Globex is open.
It’s Sunday night, and the market is open. Globex has firmed back up to 2273.00, that prior high which Friday’s rally finally retested. I’ll be monitoring much of the night in case anything deserves commenting. And in case you haven’t yet watched (or attended), here’s the Saturday Review recording.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/7/17) …
Last year ended with a decline, and this year started with a rally. Sellers threw a lot at that rally, too. But a couple of days later they only had new highs to show for it. Still overlapping the prior high wasn’t optimal, another form of distribution, but not affecting whether another new trend high close is required. At least eventually, in case this week dips while it can, ahead of the next three-day holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness.
All of which is described in detail during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Possible paths higher and lower are also described, including where Dow 20k fits into things.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FDX, DRI, SPG, GGP, CBL, FENX, MTN, LZB, TPX
01/07/2017 09:32:02 MK: gm
01/07/2017 09:32:03 David B: Good Morning
01/07/2017 09:32:07 Mark Glezer: gm
01/07/2017 09:33:10 MK: nope sounds fine
01/07/2017 09:34:35 MK: fedex has now screwed up 6 packages in a row for me
01/07/2017 09:34:41 MK: can we look at that stock as a short
01/07/2017 09:35:00 MK: audio problems
01/07/2017 09:35:11 David B: audio
01/07/2017 09:36:28 MK: same digitized noise
01/07/2017 09:36:33 G: it was garbled. OK now
01/07/2017 09:36:38 MK: as has been ahppening all week
01/07/2017 09:37:13 MK: In the last 2 trading days Naz is up 44 points.Naz breadth has lost 800 issues
01/07/2017 09:41:29 Bill G: I think March 24,2000 was a rare exception
01/07/2017 09:41:44 David B: audio
01/07/2017 09:42:08 Mark Glezer: terrible sound again
01/07/2017 09:43:42 MK: try to move the mouse less
01/07/2017 09:44:49 MK: one last thing
01/07/2017 09:45:06 MK: Press Windows key + X.Click on Control Panel.Double-Click on the Sound Icon and click on Speakers.Click on Properties.Click on Enhancements Tab.Now click “Disable All Sound Effects”Click OK and check if issue persists.
01/07/2017 09:45:50 MK: and now it sounds fine
01/07/2017 09:46:41 Mark Glezer: good now
01/07/2017 09:46:46 MK: ok
01/07/2017 09:51:22 Mark Glezer: CNBC is talking about 2500 by year’s end. Do you think 2028 limit down retest can be avoided?
01/07/2017 09:54:32 MK: wow that chart that you are showing reeks of distribution
01/07/2017 09:55:42 MK: but i mean of course the sellers were impartient (year end)
01/07/2017 09:59:21 Bill G: Friday close
01/07/2017 09:59:41 Mark Glezer: ES
01/07/2017 10:00:21 MK: In the last 2 trading days Naz is up 44 points.Naz breadth has lost 800 issues
01/07/2017 10:00:28 MK: (had to reiterate)
01/07/2017 10:01:09 MK: i have a lot of stats
01/07/2017 10:01:11 MK: Consensus Bulls 74%, highest since 2 days BEFORE Brexit.
01/07/2017 10:01:39 MK: The last time $SPX closed at an all-time high with more ⬇️than ⬆️stocks & volume and < 4% at 52-week highs was March 24, 2000.
01/07/2017 10:02:43 MK: also
01/07/2017 10:02:53 MK: Rut showing MASSIVE distribution IMO
01/07/2017 10:04:34 Mark Glezer: not looking for substantial or extended higher does not mean we reverse down anytime soon – we can maintain a narrow range for awhile?
01/07/2017 10:09:33 MK: i dont’ think i’ve ever seen a trading range at “fresh” levels unelss on the downside
01/07/2017 10:09:53 Mark Glezer: yes expanding, relatively narrow
01/07/2017 10:11:24 Mark Glezer: Fed can kill the rally
01/07/2017 10:14:39 MK: DRI
01/07/2017 10:15:04 MK: SPG
01/07/2017 10:15:06 MK: GGP
01/07/2017 10:15:24 MK: CBL
01/07/2017 10:15:32 MK: Yes
01/07/2017 10:15:34 MK: sounds great
01/07/2017 10:16:11 MK: FENX
01/07/2017 10:16:32 MK: For DRI
01/07/2017 10:16:37 MK: seems like this is going to bounce
01/07/2017 10:18:49 David B: audio
01/07/2017 10:19:04 MK: MTN
01/07/2017 10:19:22 MK: LZB
01/07/2017 10:19:25 MK: OK
01/07/2017 10:19:27 MK: thanks
01/07/2017 10:19:31 MK: i’ll stop now
01/07/2017 10:19:42 MK: that OK was not a stock
01/07/2017 10:22:27 MK: supposedly bearish
01/07/2017 10:22:38 MK: was working on a short MALL REiIT thesis
01/07/2017 10:22:42 MK: but seems pretty bullish
01/07/2017 10:26:08 MK: no
01/07/2017 10:26:13 MK: FENIX is a parts supplier
01/07/2017 10:26:16 MK: for Autos
01/07/2017 10:26:32 MK: this is a potential long
01/07/2017 10:26:36 MK: looks bad
01/07/2017 10:27:56 MK: I”m not dead yet
01/07/2017 10:28:02 MK: i’m feeling much better
01/07/2017 10:28:47 MK: I swear at some point
01/07/2017 10:28:51 MK: this is going to be a great short
01/07/2017 10:29:23 MK: yeah its unreal
01/07/2017 10:29:30 MK: reminds me of PII
01/07/2017 10:29:51 MK: yeah remember i wanted to short hat
01/07/2017 10:29:52 MK: for years
01/07/2017 10:29:55 MK: yeah
01/07/2017 10:30:09 MK: hahah
01/07/2017 10:30:57 MK: Just for my own entertainments sake
01/07/2017 10:30:59 MK: TPX
01/07/2017 10:31:09 MK: after LZB
01/07/2017 10:31:18 MK: ok
01/07/2017 10:31:23 MK: maybe i’ll sell some calls
01/07/2017 10:34:15 MK: don’t worrya bout TPX
01/07/2017 10:34:17 MK: have a good weekend
01/07/2017 10:34:21 MK: ok
01/07/2017 10:34:22 MK: thanks
01/07/2017 10:36:39 Bill G: As an aside, my understanding on Fedex/UPS tracking is that only a statistical scanning sampling is taken on each leg(long haul truck,plane, delivery truck,etc) and the assumption is made all the other packages arrive with the sampling. Of course at some point, the delivery guy has a package that doesn’t belong on his truck.The mistakes are so small relative to the volume.
01/07/2017 10:37:43 Mark Glezer: Happy New Year! thx!