Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. Yesterday’s Market Wrap touched on several of the market’s current influences. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s initial blip-up was reversed down through the day. A pullback still has room down to 1.0505-1.0525 and then lower to the 1.0450 area where a more substantial rally leg can be launched, or else a new downleg can begin.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Immediately breaking under the 1180.50 sell signal Friday was initially retraced from testing 1172.00, which was retested into the close with potential for extending down to the 1160.00 area.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s decline to 16.40 leaves no “unfinished business above” while still having room below at 16.15, simply as a correction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight tests of the 152-30 objective were followed by a knee-jerk reaction up to 153-09 on Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction down extended through the day to within 4 ticks of its 151-15 objective.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s choppiness ultimately finished slightly higher, maintaining potential for filling the gap at Tuesday’s 54.80 gap up before a more durable downleg can begin.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test of the 3.18 target held for a second consecutive session. Any early strength above 3.40 would be likely to extend in that direction intraday.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2281.00 | 2275.50 |
| …would target | 2286.75 | 2281.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2270.75 | 2265.50 |
| …would target | 2265.50 | 2260.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
All eyes have been Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point. Perhaps it will be probed decisively when actually touched, to compensate for the delay. For our own purposes, the very long awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high was finally fulfilled Friday. Its 2275.50 which was probed up to 2277.00.
That was during the noon hour. The entire afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00. Drifting another couple of points lower into the close avoided closing above 2275.50 which would have put into play the next higher objective (there’s room for noise up to 2278.25). The 2273.00 prior high held, too. But the new trend high close on Friday requires at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible.
This weekend’s Saturday Review will discuss those factors, and others regarding topping and other resolutions. Then we’ll do instant chart analyses of any stocks requested. A reminder and link will be sent overnight.
Meanwhile, details and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap recording here.
Mid-day Update… Made it!
Probing new highs.
The bias environment’s 61.8% retracement back down to the 2258.25 low did quickly recover back up to the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Hovering there until coming within view of the bias environment exit — and only until then — suddenly broke higher to the 2271.25 bias-up target.
And then higher. The 2273.00 prior high was tested just before noon. The noon hour touched 2277.00. The 2274.25 bias-up signal did trigger, but it was invalidated by breaking under it at 1:30 down to 2273.00. That hasn’t prevented a bounce back up to 2276.25.
Back under 2273.50 would start to signal this bounce off of 2273.00 is only obligatory. If today’s rally is going to avoid a new trend high close, then this afternoon’s bias environment should start the process. Regardless of its resolution, there is no unfinished business above.