Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2244.25 | 2239.50 |
| …would target | 2250.00 | 2245.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2236.00 | 2231.25 |
| …would target | 2229.25 | 2225.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue, Jan 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy New Year’s! The holiday-shortened week isn’t short on reports. Tuesday’s are all post-open, mostly high-profile, and includes ISM which has a track record for influencing price action.
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Happy New Year’s!
Whether it was a warning or a promise, it came true: The year’s last trading day was worth sticking around for. Unlike other three-day weekends, there’s business to be done, right up to the bitter end.
The session’s decline didn’t find an air pocket. But selling pressure was relentless, anyway. And it trended, in a series of lower lower lows and lower highs.
Starting at the morning’s 2248.00 bias-up signal, with its sites set 2230.00-2232.00, the target was met, even exceeded by more than 1 point. Its upper-end was still being tested at the cash session close, and then higher to 2237.25 into the futures close.
Any “unfinished business below” that was neutralized Friday was also put into play Friday. So, once again there is no unfinished business below. And once again, that need not prevent trending down deeper anyway. Attractions below at 2215.00 and potentially 2205.00 could be met as the week/month/year begins.
Gapping open above 2239.00 would all but reject the late drop, and reverse momentum up. Sellers did gain traction Friday — the bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, and the final hour was entered lower — so gapping up would be bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday. Please have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration!
Pre-close View… Good to the last drop.
Air pocket, or not, downside targets met.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAPS START EARLIER, AT 3:33 ET.
This afternoon’s 2237.25 bias-down signal was overlapped at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. It was being attacked from above to within a single tick to avoid triggering bias-down. It was pierced 2 minutes later, too late to trigger.
But it wasn’t a clean no-bias. Not even a clean late no-bias. Undermining a bottom also undermined potential for drifting flat-to-higher. So the decline extended down anyway, touching the 2232.00 bias-down target. A brief bounce has resolved down to fresh lows at 2228.00.
Oversold RSIs prevent a durable bounce. Higher lows, but still oversold. And now the final hour has been entered under the bias environment lows, which was exited under the noon hour lows. Sellers have gained traction, so another corrective bounce would trigger above 2232.50. But trending down into the close wouldn’t be surprising.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Whatever triggered Thursday night’s flash-surge vs. the Dollar, it was exacerbated by having bottomed and triggered a buy signal Wednesday and Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday is dubious confirmation. It would have been highly suspicious for post-open action only to trend down, but post-open action first probed higher — short of the 1.0635 overnight high — before dipping back under the open. Regardless, a deeper corrective dip ack to 1.0525-1.0535 is possible before resuming the breakout.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging Friday morning didn’t exploit Thursday’s breakout surge. Dipping deeper through the session only attacked 1149.40 whose break — confirmed under 1142.50 — would reinstate 1118.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s test of the 16.20 buy signal was ongoing into and out of the close and Friday’s open. It was rejected back down under the 16.00 “lower prior highs” to 15.88. A fresh low isn’t required, but would still be possible, and would still likely recover.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Friday above Thursday’s highs — which had been retraced to the 149-24 buy signal — attacked the 151-12 target to 150-24. The target remains in-play so long as 149-24 holds as support. Back under 149-18 would reverse the trend back down, sharply.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
More shallow weakness Friday morning still didn’t reverse momentum down, but it did start to undermine the recovery’s pace. Resuming the rally should have been obvious before the weekend, so surging out of the weekend may be the only near-term remaining bullish scenario.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 3.75 was in-line with Wednesday’s break above it having been exacerbated by the rollover. But breaking under 3.75 confirms. And closing under the break’s 3.62 would reverse the trend down.