Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… New meaning to New Year’s “Bash”.
Extending the decline.
This morning’s dip wasn’t recognizing an air pocket. Instead, there was potential for a corrective bounce above 2239.50 targeting 2242.75. The target was met, and retested, and then the correction ended.
The entire bounce was retraced back down to its 2236.75 origin during the noon hour. Fresh lows extended down to fulfill “unfinished business below” at this morning’s 2235.25 bias-down target. Once again, there is no unfinished business below.
Not at this moment.
The 2237.25 bias-down signal is being overlapped at the 1:20 bias timing window, which invokes the grace period. Back under it at 1:30, and preferably also at fresh lows to compensate for the delay, would target 2232.00 and lower. Not triggering bias-down could establish a floor for the day, so the balance of the session could drift flat-to-higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: As with last week’s Christmas schedule, markets including Globex remain closed on the day following New Year’s for another true three-day holiday weekend.
New Year’s Day continues
All Markets Closed
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2249.50 | 2244.75 |
| …would target | 2254.75 | 2250.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2242.00 | 2237.25 |
| …would target | 2236.75 | 2232.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Two wrongs make a right-turn.
Steep opening drop to fresh lows.
Two key points from yesterday’s close and today’s open had a similar message: Last night’s rally was the wrong way to reverse the trend, 
like yesterday afternoon’s rally only to unchanged was the wrong way to reverse momentum. Neither one was reliable for extending higher Friday morning.
That faux bullishness didn’t prevent last night’s rally. But the addition of last night’s rally only steepened the consequences of not actually extending higher post-open.
In fact, the overnight pivotal uptrending support described during the Market Tour was broken immediately after the open probed only 1 point above the 2248.00 bias-up signal. And it was broken hard. The 2241.25 bias-down signal was touched to within 1 tick during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
The first hour extended down further to 2236.75, triggering bias-down, and putting into play the 2235.25 bias-down target. The next lower target is 2230.00-2232.00, despite an air pocket under ~2241.00 not having materialized.
Back above 2240.00 (being tested now) could launch a corrective bounce, essentially targeting 2243.00. But no more than a corrective bounce is likely today.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
One pullback off the 2252.75 overnight high had attacked this morning’s 2248.00 bias-up signal as support. Its bounce was retraced to pierce under 2248.00. The next bounce was a little bigger, but also briefer. And the resulting pattern continues to range choppily around 2250.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.