Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2270.75 | 2266.50 |
| …would target | 2276.50 | 2272.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2263.00 | 2259.00 |
| …would target | 2257.75 | 2253.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
[We’ve begun starting daily Market Wrap before the close at 3:33pm ET. Other tweaks are coming soon. Please share your feedback in this blog post’s comments section or email me directly. Thank you!]
Tuesday’s resolution was disappointing. Partly for the promise of the open’s surge, which set quite a different tone for the day than its result. Not diametrically different — the trend didn’t reverse back down. But the session was spent retracing the open’s surge, not extending it.
Tuesday’s closing action didn’t make a rally any easier. The afternoon had repeatedly held 2264.75 support, but broke it down to 2261.50 through the futures close. The cash session close equated to 2264.00, preserving enough of the open’s gain to avoid rejecting it.
So, is the rally resuming? Probably. And its objective is to retest the 2273.00 high, up to 2275.50 or 2278.25. Otherwise, Tuesday’s opening surge can still be rejected by gapping down Wednesday under 2259.00. This would suggest that Monday’s rally was no more predictive than last Thursday and Friday. And it would suggest that last Thursday and Friday’s lows will be probed, below 2249.50 and 2243.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Also, early Market Wrap time.
Pullback complete, but rally not yet resumed.
MARKET WRAP BEGINS A HALF-HOUR EARLY AT 3:33 ET IN THE CHARTROOM.
Having tested and held the 2264.75 pullback limit, bouncing more than 2 points would trigger an inflection up, and likely resume the rally. But bouncing 2 points has been exceeded only by 1 tick, only a couple of times. And now the bias environment has lapsed into the final hour.
Back under 2264.75 at this stage would start to signal another downleg underway. The afternoon’s 2263.50 bias-down signal would no longer need to define the range’s lower-end. But the likelier scenario remains resuming the rally.
REPEAT: MARKET WRAP BEGINS A HALF-HOUR EARLY AT 3:33 ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Tuesday didn’t resume the rally, which had already begun prematurely last week, and still needs to be corrected back down to 1.0435 before a reliable rally leg can begin.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying sharply overnight tested the 1147.00-1149.00 bounce limit up to 1151.00 before reversing down into Tuesday’s open, testing 1136.50 as support. That’s the upper-end of the range, and whether or not it’s tested, a test of the range’s 1118.00 lower-end remains in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday left outstanding a gap back down to Friday’s close that will want to be filled before beginning a reliable rally leg. There is otherwise no unfinished business below since the outstanding gap at 15.75 was filled last week.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s weak open dropped down to probe under 149-12 support and to attack 149-04 whose breaks would signal a new low underway — and probably also a new low close which is needed before a bottom can begin forming.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s recovery from retesting its 52.50 buy signal was extended up to 54.00 Tuesday, with no excuse to further delay making the rally obvious if that is the pattern’s resolution.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to test 3.75 resistance was the maximum allowable while still being likely to retest last week’s Island sooner, rather than later. Closing any higher would suggest a much larger rally leg underway, which would be a mixed signal after leaving the Island and a lower attraction at 3.18 outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Resume the position.
Morning’s rally has been corrected.
After rallying this morning to 2269.50, the 2264.75 pullback target was met. Ninety minutes ago. Repeatedly piercing it by 1 tick — and by 1 errant tick — atill has room for noise down to 2263.50. That’s this afternoon’s bias-down signal, and it didn’t trigger.
Meanwhile, this morning’s pattern had been likely to test 2264.75. And the likely resolution resolution to its test is to resume the morning’s rally. Price has firmed to test 2266.00, and is free to accelerate its pace.
This being a no-bias environment, this afternoon’s 2270.00 bias-up signal should define the window’s upper-end if tested. Regardless, extending to retest the 2273.00 prior high would target 2275.50 and possibly 2278.25. There’s no bullish reason not to resume the rally coming out of the bias environment.