Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only Thursday’s late-morning EIA report is likely to influence price action, and only because it can influence Crude Oil, but usually only momentarily.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2266.50 | 2261.50 |
| …would target | 2271.25 | 2266.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2258.75 | 2254.00 |
| …would target | 2254.00 | 2249.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Overwhelmed.
Pre-open rally bites off more than post-open buyers can chew.
We already knew that not rallying quickly post-open would risk not triggering the 2266.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an
offsetting test of the 2259.00 bias-down signal. And that would have mutli-session bearish implications for attracting the balance of the morning down further.
But now that’s essentially the bullish scenario.
Weak-handed buying pressure at the open was unable to probe above yesterday afternoon’s ~2266.75 highs despite piercing them pre-open. Back under 2265.00 signaled momentum reversing down. It reversed down hard. Offsetting test of the 2259.00 bias-down signal? It was triggered. And its 2253.25 bias-down target has already been attacked to within 5 ticks.
So, the bearish scenario would have expended too little buying pressure to trigger bias-up. Now the bullish scenario is having expended too much selling pressure to be maintained.
At least, that would be the bullish scenario — IF the bias-down target is tested and held to within 3 ticks. Preferably this morning, allowably during the noon hour, so long as this afternoon then rallies.
Oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. Back above 2257.75 first would likely bounce to 2262.50. Leaving unfinished business below would likely trend down into the weekend.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Consolidating just under yesterday afternoon’s highs, at this morning’s 2266.50 bias-up signal, has started poking higher pre-open to 2267.50. The rally should soon be obvious in resuming if it’s resuming. Not triggering bias-up would point down, but also likely reverse momentum into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Tempered enthusiasm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge had renewed the bias-up signal by exceeding its 2266.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But probing it up to 2269.50 had left behind a corrective target below at 2264.75. And fulfilling it into the noon hour never recovered. Two timing windows ranged sideways up to 2266.75, and the position-squaring window slid to 2260.50 through the futures close. The cash session close equated to 2264.00, preserving enough of the open’s gain to prevent the closing action from reversing its uptrend.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open abruptly began reversing Tuesday’s post-close slide without piercing the 2260.50 low. The rally peaked upon attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2266.75 buy signal to within 1 tick, coinciding with Europe’s opens. Reacting down to attack 2264.00 was recovered entirely, but not yet extended any higher.
If, then…
All of yesterday’s late slide been retraced not only back up to its 2264.75 sell signal, but also up to the afternoon range’s 2266.75 upper-end. Actually, only to within 1 tick. And that was several hours ago, without yet reversing down. If this is optimism, then it is restrained. At least it confirms the late slide was weak-handed and not predictive. None of which assures that yesterday morning’s rally will resume today. But the rally should resume this morning if it’s going to resume this week, and if a deeper slide is going to be avoided. And it should resume this morning so long as the open doesn’t gap down under 2259.00. Resuming the rally would target a retest of the 2273.00 high, up to 2275.50 or 2278.25. Sliding any deeper would target a probe under last Thursday and Friday’s lows below 2249.50 and 2243.00..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2268.75 would be likely to trigger the 2266.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2264.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.