Posts by Rod David
It’s baaaack… Globex re-opens at 6:00pm ET.
I trust that everyone is having a great holiday weekend. But, like all good things (and bad things, too), it is coming to an end. You can monitor overnight action at the link below. I’ll check-in and annotate the chart where needed.
Watch Friday’s post-market Wrap recording here.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2265.25 | 2261.25 |
| …would target | 2270.00 | 2266.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2258.75 | 2254.75 |
| …would target | 2252.75 | 2248.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 27, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Housing sector data hasn’t usually been influential to price action, until recently, as mortgage rates rose and sales increased. Combined with the post-open Consumer Confidence, Tuesday may be focused on retail activity.
*S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s dip was targeting 2254.00, which was attacked to within 1 tick before quickly reversing back up 3 points. The next three hours barely firmed another 3 but the last 30 minutes surged to 2260.25. The close was flat-to-higher, within 3 ticks of the overnight high. None of which has any predictive value.
The low-volume session wasn’t going to do anything predictive, even if it had trended at all. No new unfinished business was created or left outstanding. No hold-long or hold-short, and no trading until Globex re-opens Monday evening.
Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy Chanukah weekend!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
[There is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Tuesday’s Bias Parameters will be published after the Globex re-opens.]
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The complete retracement of Thursday’s premature intraday rally didn’t extend down overnight or Friday morning. But the gap back down to 1.0435 should still be filled before a durable rally begins.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s shallow strength held 1136.50 resistance. It was nevertheless in contrast to Silver’s weakness, increasing the vulnerability to a corrective bounce to 1147.00-1149.00 before fulfilling the 1118.00 target below..
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open quickly dipped to retest Tuesday’s 15.75 gap down under all prior lows that had required being retested from above. Having neutralized the attraction below, a rally effort would be credible for extending higher. But an intraday probe of fresh lows can’t be dismissed.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Growing vulnerability to a brief false break higher was threatened at Friday’s open, although no recent intraday highs were tested by Friday’s 149-12 high. Back under 148-12 and 148-04 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL))
Gapping down Friday to retest the 52.50 buy signal was reversed back up throughout the session, but not yet reversed into positive territory, let alone reversed up sharply as the bullish scenario requires.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s 3.62 pre-open high was probed Friday’s up to 3.72, still delaying the inevitable retest of Tuesday’s Island that had formed from Wednesday’s gap up.