Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 26, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets including Globex are closed the day after Christmas for a true three-day weekend.
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2264.50 | 2260.50 |
| …would target | 2269.75 | 2266.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2253.75 | 2254.00 |
| …would target | 2252.75 | 2248.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tough room.
Narrow opening range around unchanged.
Support at 2255.50 had looked shaky pre-open. It was pierced by only 1 tick before bouncing to attack the 2259.00 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. The signal wasn’t touched, and it didn’t trigger, so holding that 2255.50 support didn’t accomplish much.
Meanwhile, three of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level, within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 2257.50 cash session close. that’s a recipe for “dry cleaners morning.”
Trending attempts are still possible, but not likely, and not likely to succeed. Dipping this morning to 2254.00 is likelier than a bounce up to 2259.00. But there’s no requirement for either
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
2260.50-2262.00 had been tested overnight up to 2261.00. Its reaction down has extended back to and through the Globex open’s 2257.50 low — which is also yesterday’s cash session close — to 2255.50. And support there looks sketchy. None of which assures extending under relevant support or above relevant resistance, any more so than opening mid-range assures not breaking out. But any trending today is likely to be this morning, and any trending this morning is likely to be obvious through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Fluctuating around yesterday’s highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted just under Wednesday’s 2260.50 low. That extended down to 2251.50 through the morning. The afternoon bounced to 2259.00 through the close. No oversold RSIs below or no-bias trending above were left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Consolidating initially back down to 2257.50 eventually resumed trending higher, touching 2261.00 at Europe’s opens. A quick reaction down to 2258.50 has since held for several hours, hovering just above yesterday’s highs.
If, then…
Thursday afternoon’s 2253.00 low had touched the “lower prior high” of a shallow consolidation at the morning’s low. That’s only an obligatory low until its reaction recovers the relevant prior high. Intraday, that prior high was 2258.00. Now the relevant prior high is 2260.50-2262.00, which was tested overnight up to 2261.00. It’s recovery through the open would target Tuesday’s 2269.50 high, and not immediately recovering 2258.00 would target fresh lows at 2249.50, inhibited only by the low-volume context of pre-holiday trading. Trending is difficult to start, difficult to stop once started, and difficult to reverse when participation is evaporating at an exponential pace because of the impending three days of illiquidity.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2260.50 would be likely to trigger the 2259.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2257.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.