Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday wasn’t likely to end the rally. But it can be corrected down to 1.0650 and still be likely to recover for fresh highs — which would likely be tested if Thursday isn’t already extending Wednesday’s bounce.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through the 1178.50 pullback limit that was broken Tuesday probed temporarily above the 1180.00 trigger, which closing above should launch a substantial rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday morning’s surge confirms that Tuesday’s inside day hovering at Monday’s highs was not bearish. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold any test of 17.00-17.10.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday morning doesn’t honor the immediate necessity to resume the decline — at least for probing fresh lows — or else a bottom may be forming. Still overlapping 151-05 does prevent gaining upside traction.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Weak EIA data triggered a deeper dip Wednesday morning that probed under the 50.50 pullback limit by 75 cents. There is no more room or time remaining to resume the rally, or at least to try temporarily, if the 52.75 target remains in-play.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing another fresh high overnight at 3.75 needed to extend, or at least be maintained, to greet Thursday’s EIA report in a position of strength. The entire gain was retraced at least to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Closing negative would greet EIA from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Although Monday’s rally is only likely to probe higher and not necessarily required, gapping down Tuesday is not the rally’s appropriate end. Higher highs remains likely so long as the 1.0680 pullback limit holds.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow intraday weakness nonetheless finished under the 1172.50 pullback limit. A recovery has no excuse to further delay extending higher, let alone closing back above 1180.00 to launch a substantial upleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday was essentially an inside day, hovering at Monday’s highs and above 16.70 which must hold to maintain the bullish pattern.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping slowly Tuesday didn’t resume the decline, so much as undermine it, all but requiring a more obvious dip back to and through the lows — which remains likely so long as 151-22 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to test the 50.50 pullback limit Tuesday never recovered nor resumed the rally, but the pullback limit held. Now in addition to the next higher objective outstanding at 52.75, the gap back up to Monday’s 51.55 close is likely to be filled.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing fresh highs Tuesday up to to 3.73 was not maintained as price dipped back into Monday’s range. This a dangerous area for the rally to lose momentum, as it fills an outstanding gap back up to October’s prior highs. The next reaction down should be sudden, steep and substantial, likely to test 3.60, which must be rejected almost immediately to maintain the rally’s momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The potential Euro bottom I have been pointing was in jeopardy when Italy’s vote triggered a plunge back through prior lows down to 1.0510. But already recovering at the open had isolated the overnight drop. And gapping up then extended to fresh highs testing 1.0802. The wide outside day does help to suggest a bottom is forming, but it can also expend all near-term available buying pressure and need a corrective dip.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s reaction to Italy’s referendum triggered gap up and extension to test the range’s 1190.00 highs before reversing to probe under 1166.00 again down to 1158.60. The pattern remained bullish so long as 1166.00 was recovered through the close, and in fact the gap back up to Friday’s 1177.00 close was tested Monday afternoon. Extending any higher now requires pullbacks to hold 1172.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and testing 17.05 overnight on Italy’s vote was reversed down sharply to 16.55 Monday morning. But recovering into the close reached new intraday highs testing 16.95, just 10 cents under the overnight low, still suggesting a new upleg is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight surge to 151-19 on Italy’s vote was reversed to greet Monday’s open back down at 149-22. Extending to 149-11 bounced to test 150-25 — again — bordering on overkill for retesting resistance instead of already exploiting that it has held multiple tests.. Back above 151-22 could suggest the downside is already done.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s strength and Monday’s modest gap up ultimately ranged sideways at or above Thursday’s prior high, attacking the 52.75 target to within 30 cents. The trend remains up so long as 50.50 holds as support.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pullback under 3.48 to 3.37 was recovered to fresh highs Sunday night, which extended back up to and though Thursday night’s 3.57 high to 3.65. The action is very impressive, but cannot afford to hesitate extending higher as it is testing natural resistance back to October’s high gap at 3.67.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… PLEASE NOTE: THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP TODAY.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s test of the 1.0655 buy signal was probed overnight up to 1.0695, and then again Friday morning to at least test the 1.0685 prior highs. Closing any higher would help to confirm that Wednesday’s retest of the prior Wednesday’s close had sufficed to form a durable bottom.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Modest overnight strength stopped short of even attacking the 1181.00 level whose recovery would start to suggest a bottom is forming. Friday’s post-open dip to 1168.50 was recovered to a higher high. Meanwhile, this leg’s minimum 1166.00 objective has held two tests and closed higher, with no overnight lower low, so a bottom has no bullish reason to further delay starting to signal it is forming.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying overnight to probe back above 16.70 was retraced already by Friday’s open. But the morning’s higher highs suggested its recovery through the close, which would begin sealing a bottom, if not also reverse momentum up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday ahead of the Employment Situation report didn’t much change in reaction to the report. So long as 150-25 isn’t recovered, at least one more lower close remains likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 50.50 pullback limit was tested overnight. So long as it holds as support through the close, the next higher target at 52.75 is in-play, and potentially aslo 56.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending to fresh highs overnight does not prevent reversing down intraday. Indeed, Friday’s opening action did reverse down from testing 3.57 overnight to probe under the 3.48 pullback limit, whose break through the close would trigger a deep pullback. Closing above 3.53 would indicate the pullback limit held its test.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 1.0560 close Wednesday may have sufficed to start forming a bottom, as was suspected. Gapping up Thursday morning was not an appropriate start to launching a recovery, but a post-open dip filled the gap back to this Wednesday’s close and recovered to test the 1.0655 buy signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under 1181.00 had put into play 1166.00, which was tested overnight and then again intraday Thursday down to a lower low at 1162.20.  Closing above 1166.00 doesn’t reverse momentum up, but it does allow a bottom to begin forming.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows for the week under 16.45, both overnight and intraday Thursday, were recovered back above 16.45 to suggest that no new downleg is forming. But one remains vulnerable, unless 16.70 is recovered.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rolling coverage forward from Dec to Mar at a 1-12 discount … Wednesday’s gap down and probe under the prior low was followed by Thursday’s steep drop under the 150-25 sell signal (basis Mar, 152-07 basis Dec) to 148-11. The sequence qualifies as a confirmed breakout, next targeting 147-21, so long as bounces now hold 149-30.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally’s minimum 50.50 objective was met overnight, and then exceeded Thursday by gapping up and extending to 51.80. Being a second consecutive higher close, at least an eventual third higher close is now required. Its minimum likely target is 52.75, and potentially also 56.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday didn’t affect whether the morning’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of strength. Extending higher fulfilled this leg’s 3.45-3.50 target up to 3.52. The target area held as resistance through the close, so almost any negative close on Friday would trigger a multi-session pullback.