Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Continuing to hover just under the 1.0685 bounce limit Wednesday morning was finally rejected in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Plunging essentially filled the gap back down to Friday’s 1.0556 close. Regardless, at least one more eventual low close remains outstanding.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to 1162.00 extended higher briefly to 1168.00, but greeted the afternoon’s FOMC statement back down at 1162.00. Its reaction spiked down to new lows at 1150.00, next targeting 1142.00 if not isolated by Thursday’s open, but even then.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped up to the 17.05 buy signal and extended back to prior highs above 17.25. But the FOMC triggered a plunge down to 16.90 that must be recovered back above 17.05 at Thursday’s open to isolate it.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged all morning around Tuesday’s test of the 149-22 bounce limit, probing above 150-00. Plunging in reaction to FOMC probed negative territory at 148-22, with a new low close requirement still outstanding.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday was the lowest price since Sunday night’s gap up. “Lower prior highs” were tested at 51.55, and back above 52.75 may be the nearest buy signal for the rally next targeting 56.15 — preferably resuming no later than Thursday morning.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.44 fresh low overnight was attacked to within 1 penny Wednesday morning before bouncing back up into the prior two days’ range at 3.55. Tuesday’s confirmation to Monday’s breakout wasn’t optimal, so just the fresh low intraday might satisfy selling pressure. But until closing above 3.59, a fresh low close remains likely anyway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s corrective bounce extended a little higher Tuesday, still having room up to 1.0685 while maintaining a near-term attraction back down to the gap at Friday’s close, as well as a likelihood for probing new lows.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip that recovered into Tuesday’s open was too shallow anyway to qualify as the selling effort that a bottoming pattern would need to finish forming. A steeper and deeper post-open dive tested the likely 1157.50 objective and tried holding it. Closing positive would be bullish, as would closing above 1166.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the gap back up to its recent high close Monday was likely to produce a reaction down Tuesday, but its objective in the 17.00-17.10 area was exceeded to also retest 16.90. That’s deeper than would have been optimal, creating more room to recover before even launching a new upleg, which would be signaled by closing back above 17.05.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday held resistance at 149-22 before retracing into the afternoon’s 30-year auction. The gap back to Monday’s 148-11 close was only attacked, stopping optimistically short of filling, while at least a third lower close in the decline is still required.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging continued to depend on the rally’s 52.75 upside target to serve as a pullback limit while maintaining upside potential for extending to 56.15..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s inside day didn’t reject Monday’s break lower, although a second consecutive lower close would be decisively bearish to require at least an eventual third lower close. None of which precludes there still being a lower close — at least probing lower intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up sharply Monday morning nevertheless only held a natural retest of higher prior lows while filling the gap back to Thursday’s 1.0620 close. Slightly higher highs suggest the 1.0685 sell signal will be revisited before reversing back down, unless first closing back under 1.0610.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1152.50 were not revisited intraday Monday, which instead bounced back up to test 1166.00 resistance. Sunday night’s low doesn’t require being retested before a rally begins, but some sort of failed selling effort is likely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s momentary dip to 16.77 reacted up aggressively to isolate its probe under 16.90 to the overnight. This leaves no bullish reason to further delay rallying. In fact, extending above 17.10 does signal the pullback has ended. Filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 17.27 close might inhibit extending higher immediately, perhaps to await Gold completing its own bottom.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh low overnight at 147-10 was attacked to only 147-22 post open Monday. Closing lower Monday but within Sunday night’s range would not fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least an eventual third lower close — but  it would allow probing fresh lows intraday to recover.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s open gapped up sharply through the 52.75 target, which became the pullback limit. Reacting down Monday morning held the pullback limit’s test down to 52.55. to test/hold it. Holding it would be optimal for maintaining the next higher objective at 56.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night from 3.75 to and through the 3.59 sell signal extended lower Monday to test the 3.47 prior sell signal. The gap back up to 3.75 may yet be revisited.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s break under 1.0685 extended down deeper Friday to test month-old prior lows at 1.0535. Already having probed under it Sunday previously suggests that the likely retest will not form a quick bottom and recovery..

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip back under the 1178.50 pullback limit extended much deeper, retesting not only the decline’s 1166.00 target but also attacking prior lows under 1160.00. This action contradicts the bottoming effort, which still must be aggressive in launching a rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Room for noise down to 17.00 was probed Friday down to 17.90, almost as deep as possible without yet reversing the trend down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overdue break was confirmed Friday by gapping down and trending lower, producing a second consecutive lower close that attacked prior lows. An eventual third lower close is now required, targeting 147-21.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday was an appropriate start to an upleg targeting fresh highs at 52.75, which would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday, and could extend higher anyway so long as pullbacks hold 50.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs tested 3.75 Friday which would trigger an extended upleg if recovered through the close. Otherwise, closing back under 3.57 would reverse the trend down for at least a correctiion.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping up sharply in reaction to Thursday’s ECB news was reversed back down more sharply Thursday morning, testing the 1.0650 pullback limit. Holding its test prior to probing fresh highs would have been bullish. Not holding its test after probing fresh highs is bearish. And it was broken down to 1.0600, where Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows was triggered. There is no active signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s shallow dip was similar to Wednesday’s brief probe above 1180.00, both reflecting restrained optimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective — and which should behave very optimistically upon actually breaking above 1180.00. But the shallow dip must continue holding its test of the 1172.50 pullback limit.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday held a test of the 17.00-17.10 pullback limit to maintain the upside momentum. But a second consecutive higher confirming close was not produced, so the rally effort cannot tolerate a second consecutive dip.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging around 151-05 had kept alive potential for resuming the decline, if done immediately, since Wednesday had needed already to resume the decline. Thursday’s gap down did not compensate for the delay because it did not extend lower intraday. Regardless, a second consecutive lower close Friday is needed to confirm.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still consolidating under the 50.50 pullback limit Thursday without extending down has kept alive the potential for rally back up to the 52.75 target. The optimal start would be sudden, steep and substantial.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s muted reaction to the EIA report didn’t reflect the weakness that greeted it. Perhaps that is because a probe of lower lows overnight was recovered and isolated at the open. Still the intraday reaction was also shallow. There is no active signal.