Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the lowest calculable 1.0410 target had recovered to avoid closing under the 1.0435 pullback limit so that a bottom could begin forming. Although it’s premature to yet recover, Wednesday gapped up and traded exclusively in positive territory, still at or under prior highs.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday only attacked 1139.00 before retracing back to Tuesday’s close, still no likelier than not to fulfill the decline’s 1118.00 objective or test the 1147.00-1149.00 bounce potential first.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery from gapping down to its 15.67 target did not extend higher Wednesday, still attracted lower to test Tuesday’s open from above.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday not only further delayed fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least one more lower close, but also created a new attraction below at the gap back down to Friday’s close. Gapping down Tuesday  didn’t extend, and Wednesday firmed back up to Monday’s 149-04 high, which does not affect the pattern.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming after Tuesday’s API report didn’t extend higher, but dipping after Wednesday morning’s EIA report did revisit the 52.40 buy signal. The rally should resume without further delay to maintain the near-term target of retesting last Sunday night’s 55.45 high.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close, forming an Island of Tuesday’s gap down that had probed fresh relative lows down to 3.24. Peaking at or under 3.50 (which was probed intraday) keeps alive near-term potential to resume the decline targeting 3.18.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down retested the 1.0410 lowest calculable objective that had held already last week. Bouncing back up to 1.0435 avoided a second consecutive close under it that would have required the decline to extend. Almost any initial strength Wednesday morning would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective bounce’s 1136.50 signal had triggered artificially and wasn’t immediately rejected, giving a benefit of the doubt to extending the bounce. It didn’t. Tuesday’s break back under 1136.50 doesn’t prevent the bounce from extending, but it opens the door as widely to simply extending down to the 1118.00 objective still in-play..

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday fulfilled the 15.66 to within 1 penny and reversed up sharply back into positive territory. The opening gap below must still be tested from above, and it’s premature to expect a durable rally leg, but this action does allow a bottom to begin forming..

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down within Monday’s range didn’t reject Monday’s gap up, so even the price weakness reflects optimism that is only delaying fulfilling the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close, and probably making a more substantial new low likely..

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday to test 53.75 didn’t extend, and was retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s ~53.10 close. While a positive close would fulfill the minimum requirement of Friday’s sub-optimal breakout, a retest of last Sunday night’s 54.90-55.30 highs remains outstanding..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s dip to 3.33 had been retraced before Monday’s open but never rejected intraday, so trending down deeper into Tuesday’s open helped confirm the 3.19 target is in-play, already testing 3.24 intraday..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Last week’s test of the 4.0410 lowest calculable objective doesn’t require a retest, despite Friday’s high having held a test of the decline’s initial 1.0525 target as resistance. But bottoming requires that 1.0435 not break as support, at least through any close, at least for no more than one session.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s spike up through the 1135.50 buy signal was in reaction to destabilizing news instead of organic, so its 1146.00-1149.00 target wasn’t any likelier to be met. But 1135.50 held as a pullback limit through Monday’s open so the target area’s test is likely anyway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s inside day gapped down slightly and trended down slightly, which suggests that weak hands are pessimistic. That is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but does not preclude one more probe of fresh lows with potential to 15.66.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday repeated the pattern of bouncing optimistically by gapping up, instead of fulfilling the requirement for at least one more new low close. The cumulative delay suggests that more than one new low close will develop to compensate for the delay.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength up to 52.50 was retraced to greet Monday in negative territory, and not retested despite returning to positive territory intraday. A second consecutive close Monday would confirm Friday’s breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping overnight to a fresh low at 3.33 was recovered before Monday’s open, but momentum did not reverse up, making fresh lows likely with potential down to 3.19.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing off of Thursday’s test of 1.0365 to close above 1.0390 had indicated the decline wasn’t likely to extend Friday, which retraced it up to 1.0475. A bigger bounce isn’t required, but still possible without yet reversing the trend back up, Similarly, retesting the low wouldn’t prevent a bottom to begin forming.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly and trying to probe higher Friday was likely to avoid a second consecutive lower close. Spiking up in reaction to an international incident with China assured it. Resistance at 1142.00 was probed by at least $1. Back under 1136.50 would likely resume the downleg next targeting 1118.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Friday to probe above Thursday’s highs prevented a second consecutive lower close which allows a bottoming pattern to begin forming sooner, rather than later. Nevertheless, that means a couple of false breaks higher and a temporary probe of fresh lows before launching anything durable.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Delaying the pattern’s outstanding requirement for at least one eventual lower close suggests that just one new low close won’t suffice. Delays like filling the gap Thursday back up to Wednesday’s 149-25 close, and like bouncing Friday from attacking the 147-04 low down to 147-13 before bouncing 1 point.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Firming further Friday morning tested the 51.75 buy signal that makes last Sunday night’s 54.50 high likely to be retested. Resuming the rally to its 56.15 target is now less likely.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday’s fresh low close had fulfilled the minimum objective, lower lows overnight and into Friday’s open tested November’s “lower prior highs” at 3.34,. Extending down Monday would next target 3.19.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Regardless of the interim bounce, there had been no bullish reason for last Friday’s third return to the lows. Thursday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the 1.0430 target and extended lower to its room for noise down to 1.0365. Closing above 1.0390 would not prevent probing lower Friday, but a negative close would be a little less likely

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Plunging to test 1142.00 after Wednesday’s FOMC news was extended lower overnight to attack 1127.00, and then lower Thursday morning to test 1124.50. Bounces have room up to 1135.50 just as noise, with room for noise below down to 1118.00 that is likely to be tested.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had returned down to 16.90 for which there was no bullish reason, as proved out by trending down sharply overnight to probe new lows under 16.75. Thursday morning extended down even lower to 15.92, with further room down to 15.67.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC news had attacked prior lows, which were probed by a new low at 147-04 before Thursday’s open. A bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 148-25 close which tried again to avoid fulfilling the requirement for at least one more new low close before a bottom could form.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A pullback from Sunday night’s high was likely to end Wednesday, or to at least begin recovering immediately Thursday. Gapping down to fresh lows Thursday instead doesn’t reverse the trend down. But it does make a bounce — triggered above 51.75 — likelier to hold a retest of the rally’s 52.75 target, and probably also last Sunday night’s 54.50 high..

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction that blipped-up momentarily to 3.59. But its reaction then spiked back down to probe fresh lows for the pullback at 3.39. Closing at a new relative low fulfills the minimum requirement of Monday’s confirmed breakout. Closing above 3.52 would reverse the trend back up, but there is meanwhile room for lower lows down to 3.31.

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