Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down back under the 1.1265 sell signal proved that Monday’s ranging around the 1.1300 prior high had held. But a second consecutive lower close Wednesday is needed for confirmation.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday gapped down under a three-day consolidation that had ranged around 1341.50. Critical support at 1329.00 was tested by mid-morning, and still being tested through the afternoon. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm. Meanwhile, the break’s momentum requires bounces to hold 1332.00 as resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday from Monday’s break under 19.75 was extended to 19.05 intraday, confirming that at least an eventual third lower close is now required. Bounces must meanwhile hold 19.35 to confirm momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 168-22 high avoided it being a false break. Its second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, and now requires at least an eventual third higher close. The likely minimum objective is 170-02.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s gap down retraced Monday’s recovery of Friday’s plunge. Filling the gap back down to Friday’s 44.55 close does neutralize its attraction below, but it’s not a buy signal. Closing back above 45.00 would signal the rally is resuming. There’s otherwise risk in even the most bullish pattern for a detour to 42.25.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s flat-to-higher firming didn’t reject Monday’s bounce from Friday’s test of “lower prior highs.” But Tuesday’s firming was too shallow to confirm a reversal underway. Nevertheless, almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap up to Thursdays 1.1300 high did probe slightly higher intraday to 1.1320, but essentially only ranged around 1.1300. Almost any initial weakness Tuesday would be credible for extending down into a new downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only slight overnight weakness into Monday’s open was easily absorbed. The attempt to break under 1341.50 support wasn’t necessarily rejected, but almost any credible downleg should be obvious by Tuesday morning.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday was recovered to test 19.75 as resistance, but the test held and its sell signal triggered. Recovering 19.85 without delay Tuesday morning would invalidate Monday’s break, and could marginalize sellers into next week. Otherwise, fresh lows would soon be in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up only to Thursday and Friday’s highs still created an Ascending Triangle pattern targeting at least 168-22. The target’s test intraday creates a requirement either to close above it for a breakout, or to react down and continue forming a bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having confirmed a breakout, Friday’s plunge to 44.25 opened a buying opportunity for that recovery. Monday’s gap up back above the 45.00 buy signal extended higher intraday to  retrace all of Friday’s drop.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ending last week with a pullback down to “lower prior highs” had both expended and satisfied enough selling pressure to enable a new upleg to being. Closing above 3.04 would confirm..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The portion of Thursday’s break back under 1.1265 was retraced immediately Friday, and held through the morning. The afternoon ranged around it, resisted by the gap back to Thursday’s 1.1280 open, neutralizing its attraction without reversing momentum up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip was still overlapping 1341.50 but not necessarily closing under it. It isn’t optimal for rejecting the week’s rally, but it does prevent confirming Thursday’s close above resistance, keeping the door open to another downleg without delay.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing back at or under 19.85 Friday does prevent the recent multi-day surge from being confirmed. Closing Friday back under 19.75 would have been optimal. Alternatively, almost any initial weakness Monday — if not already sliding Sunday night — would be credible for retracing the week’s rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending higher Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the ongoing bottoming pattern that we’ve been monitoring. Not yet confirming it does not equate to invalidating it. But the breakout’s rally should become obvious no later than Tuesday if valid.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down extended to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s ~44.25 close. The test should hold, although it can temporarily probe a little deeper before recovering Monday. Regardless, Wednesday’s confirmed breakout already requires there to be at least an eventual fresh high close.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down on its EIA report extended lower Friday, holding a test of the “lower prior highs” at 2.94. Momentum has not reversed down, but the lower prior highs test must hold through the next close, if not already start recovering to resume the rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday retested the 1.1265 sell signal that had triggered last week by gapping down. Extending higher intraday to 1.1300 filled the gap back preceding the sell signal’s original break, neutralizing its upside attraction. Closing back under 1.1265 is credible as re-triggering the sell signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge in reaction to the FOMC news was not rejected overnight, and firmed slightly into Thursday’s open to test the original 1341.50 sell signal. Closing above it Thursday, and confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday, would take 1296.00-1297.00 off the table for a bigger rally leg. Back under 1329.00 would resume the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above 19.75-19.85 and closing above it would be confirmed as being the beginning of a new upleg by a second consecutive higher close Friday. Otherwise, back under 19.75 would trigger a new downleg.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up and extending higher Thursday to test 168-00 is further confirmation that a bottom has formed, but it doesn’t prevent backing-and-filling that tests the past week’s “lower prior highs” before extending higher.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap up and higher close confirmed Wednesday’s breakout, and the likelihood for this leg to now target 49.00. Closing back under 45.00 could extend lower to fresh lows, but only in the context of being temporary.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength for not having rejected Tuesday’s breakout, although Wednesday had not confirmed the breakout. The intraday reaction down held “lower prior highs” and remains likely to recover and resume the rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1.1165 on the BOJ news were stabilized Wednesday morning. A spike up in reaction to FOMC attacked Monday’s 1.1240 high. Not closing any higher would keep alive the decline’s momentum, which otherwise has yet to produce two consecutive lower closes.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging higher overnight tested the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit Wednesday morning. Holding it through Wednesday’s close didn’t prevent attacking the original 1341.50 sell signal in reaction to FOMC news. Back under 1329.00 would resume the decline, but closing above 1341.50 would suggest a much bigger rally is underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting down Tuesday from Monday’s test of the 19.35 bounce limit didn’t prevent extending sharply higher overnight to test the original 19.75 sell signal as resistance Wednesday. It was probed after the close in reaction to FOMC news, and must be recovered through Thursday’s open to maintain this bounce as being only a temporary correction.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking down overnight in reaction to the BOJ news probed last week’s lows momentarily, recovering to greet Wednesday’s open probing back above the 165-30 bounce limit. Another, albeit shallower bobble reacted to the afternoon FOMC news before bouncing back up to 165-30. The pattern is well-positioned to rally, so any further delay would be considered bearish.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Wednesday morning and reacting up on the EIA report tested the 45.00 buy signal whose recovery through the close would signal momentum reversing up. Probing it up to 45.50 allows a second consecutive higher close Thursday to confirm a rally leg targeting 49.00 is underway.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Instead of backing-and-filling down to lower prior highs, Wednesday’s open gapped up above the longstanding 3.04 target that had been met Tuesday, attacking 3.10  But the initial strength didn’t extend, and the balance of the session only fluctuated around 3.04.