Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After Friday had maximized the corrective bounce potential, initially firming Monday did not extend and only ranged narrowly under Friday’s high. Retesting last week’s low is likely so long as 1.1100 isn’t recovered.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held the 1138.50 pullback limit Friday, gapping down slightly to fresh lows extended intraday to 1132.50. A bounce can now test 1141.50 without reversing the trend up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed Friday, but Monday’s open still gapped down and extended to 15.25, much further below the 15.85 buy signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly Monday soon probed a couple of ticks under Thursday’s 155-21 prior low down to try resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Several days of testing the 46.00 bounce limit may have begun resolving down with Monday’s weaker open. Momentum didn’t actually reverse down, but the recovery attempt cannot afford any further delay if it is valid.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing above 2.31 Friday allowed a second consecutive higher close Monday above 2.37 to signal a new rally leg already underway. But the open gapped down and the session was spent consolidating within the recent range. Recovering 2.37 would still be bullish, but also needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Wednesday’s plunge extended higher Friday to attack 1.1080, which is the maximum bounce limit. The balance of the session trended back down, presumably to fulfill the required retest of Wednesday’s low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s probe under 1150.00 support extended deeper into Friday’s open to eventually test the next lower support at 1138.50. Closing back above 1150.00 would now signal the decline had ended.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout under the multi-session range wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Friday. That’s not a buy signal, but back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive lower close Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s plunge had reversed the trend down. But the bounce didn’t recover what is now resistance at 156-18.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s retest of Thursday’s probe above 46.00 up to 46.75 had held intraday, keeping the bounce’s momentum vulnerable to being reversed as the decline resumes. Post-close action did probe higher, but any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for resuming the decline.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s close above 2.31 fulfilled the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Extending above 2.37 Friday is still needed to confirm.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge from its 1.1100 bounce limit had dropped deeply to fulfill the minimum outstanding requirement. Gaping up Thursday and ranging exclusively in positive territory suggests as much, although a retest of Wednesday’s low would be needed to begin forming a bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had become likely to extend to at least test 1150.00, which was  done Thursday down to 1146.00. Closing back above 115.00 would signal the decline had ended.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction that plunged back down to 15.85 support extended down Thursday. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum had reversed down. Back above 15.85 would again target fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Excessive optimism at Wednesday’s low was repeated at Thursday’s open, before plunging to the lowest levels in two weeks. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh bounce highs Thursday probed above 46.00 but did not trend up, which could have produced a second consecutive higher close that signals a bigger corrective bounce underway. Back under 45.00 would likely resume the decline.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s hesitation even held through Thursday’s EIA report. Through the report, but not necessarily through the day. A late dive probed fresh intraday lows at 2.25 before closing flat with Wednesday’s low. Closing back above 2.31 would start to signal the decline had ended.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday probed above Tuesday’s high to more fully utilize the room for a bounce up to 1.1100. Having fully utilized it, I noted during the morning Tour that a reaction down had become likely and likely at least to fulfill the minimum third lower close in-play. The FOMC reaction actually plunged to new lows at 1.0933.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday through the 1170.00 buy signal extended through 1173.50 and also above 1180.00. The reaction before FOMC had attacked 1173.50. The reaction after plunged down to 1162.00, leaving no new signal.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Basing around 15.85 lifted off overnight  to trend up Wednesday and test 16.35. But the FOMC reaction erased it all back down to 15.85.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s retest of the bounce limit of last Monday’s 158-10 / 158-24 highs produced another reaction down Wednesday to 157-08. Firming in reaction to FOMC held above 157-02 to delay extending the decline.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s gap down had already indicated wider realization of the downtrend we’ve been tracking. But Wednesday’s surge developed prematurely to the likelier bounce origin that wasn’t yet reached. The bounce was nonetheless productive, testing 46.00. Back under 44.05-44.25 would signal the bounce had ended and that momentum was reversing down to at least 41.50-42.20.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
More ranging around 2.05-2.08 Wednesday continued forming a base that can launch a recovery leg if triggered back above 2.25.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up to 1.1085 still had room for noise up to 1.1100 before resuming the decline, or at least producing one more new low close. The gap didn’t extend higher, but it wasn’t yet rejected.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping Tuesday in reaction to Durable Goods still recovered to resume ranging around 1165.50, which must continue holding as support to launch a new upleg.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping Tuesday was recovered to resume ranging around 15.85, potentially to launch a rally to new recovery highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap up extended higher to test the bounce limit from last Monday’s 158-10 / 158-24 highs. The extended bounce seemed a little much and a little early to be last-minute optimism ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement. Regardless, Wednesday’s news would be greeted from a position of strength after closing above 159-02.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday suggests the decline we’ve been tracking is becoming more widely believed. A corrective bounce becomes likelier, especially if originating from the 41.50-42.20 area.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered Tuesday morning to probe above the 2.08 bounce limit that would otherwise maintain the decline’s momentum. The bounce limit’s test reacted back down to close while testing 2.05 support.