Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly and firming Monday was contained within the 1.1100 bounce limit which keeps alive the downward momentum, and the confirmed break that is now seeking at least a third lower close.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly Monday was just enough to range narrowly around the 1165.50 pullback limit that had held until Friday morning. Closing above 1170.00 would now target 1180.00, and then fresh highs.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing around 15.85 Friday had suggested that sellers didn’t gain any traction. Gapping up slightly Monday didn’t extend higher, but its tempered optimism keeps alive potential for resuming the rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday above Friday’s range didn’t invalidate its break, and left outstanding the gap back to Friday’s close which can attract price down to resume the decline.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness kept the pattern under pressure as lower targets remain outstanding, but a confirmed breakout close is still lacking.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down Sunday night from Friday’s 2.27 close extended down Sunday night and intraday Monday to 2.05. Closing above 2’08 would suggest the decline was bottoming. But no recovery is signaled until also recovering above 2.16.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down even more sharply on China’s interest rate moves has now produced a second consecutive lower close confirming Thursday’s breakout. Bounce potential is still 1.1180, if not 1.1140. But at least an eventual third lower close is now required.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging in reaction to China’s moves sent price through 1173.50. But 1180.00 was only attacked and not recovered before optimism disappeared. The 1165.50 pullback limit was tested down to 1160.00. Immediately recovering 1165.50 would be likely to extend higher. The pullback is otherwise likely to test 1155.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday and extending to 16.10 was reversed back into negative territory at 15.70. That was early and the balance of the session ranged narrowly around 15.85 to keep alive potential for launching a new upleg.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 156-16 compensated for the delay of Thursday’s redundant test of the bonce limit. But a second consecutive lower close confirming the trend change is still required.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not terribly dissimilar to Thursday, Friday initially firmed in reaction to China’s economic nudging, but still reversed down to extend the trend reversal.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday precluded there being an immediate durable recovery. The open’s gap must still be filled after bouncing back up to “higher prior lows,” assuming the drop even tries to end. Which trending down after the open didn’t suggest.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The potential for resuming its rally was overcome by the vulnerability to extending its decline. Two prior sessions of hovering optimistically short of filling its gap back to Friday’s close didn’t help to absorb Thursday’s bearish ECB news. Room for noise down to 1.1300 was easily exceeded on the way to a prior low at 1.1140. Closing above 1.1180 would signal the drop was only a one-day wonder.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Thursday morning around the 1165.50 pullback limit that had held already Tuesday doesn’t prevent resuming the decline, but it does give confidence to a more aggressive buy signal than 1180.00, triggered above 1173.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up tested 15.85 which helped to reject Wednesday’s dip under it. Closing any higher Friday would be credible for launching a new upleg to fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s maximum bounce limit test had reacted down initially Thursday, but another upleg probed higher above 159-00 into Thursday afternoon. Back under 158-10 would resume the drop.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap up was retraced entirely back down to Wednesday’s low, in-line with the momentum reversal underway, which remains intact so long as bounces hold any test of 46.85.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction to the EIA report probed a fresh low at 2.36 before bouncing to test Wednesday’s 2.38 low. This is still not a bottoming pattern, but there is no lower target in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging only narrowly Wednesday instead of rejecting Tuesday’s gap up session does suggest the recovery potential remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another break to fresh relative lower Wednesday tested the maximum pullback limit at 1165.50. Any lower would require a deeper and more prolonged drop before putting back into play a retest of prior highs up to 1195.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday to 15.85 extended to fresh lows intraday at 15.60. Back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up. Closing under 15.60 would suggest no recovery soon.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending back above the 158-04 sell signal  also retraced Monday’s range entirely back up to 158-24, which is the highest acceptable corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight probed under last week’s two “ineffectual pessimism” sessions to 44.85. The trend remains down so long as 46.85 isn’t recovered through the close.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of counter-trend bouncing had retraced almost all of the room allowed it up to 2.48-2.51. The overnight reaction down gapped down Wednesday to probe under the 2.41 prior low. A bottom would be premature, but a bottoming pattern could begin forming. Regardless, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Room for the pullback down to 1.1300 was ignored in favor of gapping up Tuesday. But most of the session trended back down after filling the gap back to Friday’s 1.1380 close. Closing above 1.1400 would signal the pullback had ended.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close under 1180.00 wasn’t rejected at Tuesday’s open. But a bounce tested it intraday, and so avoided confirming Monday’s break. This leaves open the potential for recovering to fill either gap outstanding, or to fulfill potential to 1195.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Tuesday continued to hold the 15.85 pullback limit, keeping alive potential for launching a new upleg by surging above 16.10.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday to Monday’s low under the 158-04 sell signal then extended lower intraday to confirm Monday’s break, but still needing to confirm the sell signal.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s weakness dipped deeper to test the 45.80 lower-end of last week’s two consecutive “ineffectual pessimism” sessions. Breaking lower Wednesday would signal the drop had resumed — and it should resume aggeressively.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above Monday’s high wasn’t any more likely to extend through 2.48-2.51 resistance, not until first retesting last week’s 2.41 low.