Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down continued Wednesday to fulfill the 1.1065 target. The next lower objective is a retest of Sunday night”s low in the 1.100 area. Closing back above 1.1110 would suggest the pullback has ended.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Remaining under pressure Wednesday morning only attacked Tuesday”s low, but the 1158.50 target remains intact.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Whether or not Tuesday”s breakout low was confirmed by a lower close Wednesday, holding above Tuesday”s intraday low made the confirmation less than optimal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight plunge to test 148-20 confirmed Monday”s gap up had gained no traction while a fresh low remained likely before any other resolution would be credible. This pattern tends to extend by gapping, making an overnight slide likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday to the 58.70 sell signal trended down sharply into the afternoon to fresh lows at 56.85 support. Extending deeper would likely test 55.35, but closing back above 57.75 would signal that the break would not extend and could still launch a sudden reaction up.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s recovery to 2.83 resistance was probed momentarily by 1 penny at Wednesday”s open, but only to reverse down to probe 1 penny under 2.77 support. The extended range isn”t narrowing, so its first breakout would still be credible for extending intraday in that direction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday night”s weakness was recovered back up to unchanged at 1.1250 where intraday selling could probe under the overnight low. Then Monday night”s low was probed on the way down to Monday”s 1.1125 intraday low. The setup”s target is a deeper reaction down to 1.1065, so long as 1.1250 now holds as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down Tuesday helped to confirm that Monday”s test of 1183.70 resistance had held the corrective bounce. Gapping down Tuesday under 1175.00 support to a fresh low at 1165.40 was retraced aggressively, but only temporarily as the close tried resuming the decline.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding to fresh lows under 15.45 Tuesday morning reacted up sharply above 15.80, but only momentarily before dipping to a new low close..

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s probe above Monday”s 151-04 intraday high was attacked Sunday night”s 151-22 high. Still overlapping Monday”s close prevented the confirmation of a second consecutive higher close. Back under 150-08 would start to signal momentum reversing back down

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s intraday rally attacked 59.75. Extending above 60.20 would be likely to extend up sharply, targeting 63.15.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s recovery from 2.77 back up to 2.83 was retraced again to retest 2.77 support. And that was again recovered back up to 2.83 which must be recovered through the close to launch a new rally leg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down on Greece”s weekend events fulfilled the minimum objective of testing the 1.1050 prior low. That was retraced entirely back into positive territory attacking 1.1300. That was a 61.8% swing into positive territory from the overnight low, suggesting an inflection point where either the recovery accelerates or else fails miserably.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gappiing up sharply Sunday night in reaction to Greece”s developments probed $4 above the 1183.70 resistance that has defined prior swings. Its complete retracement back to unchanged at 1173.50 bounced back into positive territory through the afternoon, retracing 61.8% back to overnight highs — but not yet invalidating the 1158.50 target that remains in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night”s gap up and follow-through were very shallow considering the reactions and other swings developing elsewhere on the Greece news. But that muted response is entirely appropriate for waiting out Gold”s deeper issues so that both can rally in unison. The afternoon”s dip back toward Friday”s low was essentially an inside day with no new traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up back above last Monday”s 149-24 close that had been recovered once was itself worthy of some follow-through. Gapping up also above what had been the 150-08 buy signal to a 4-point gain at 151-22 was difficult to maintain. In fact, it reacted down to 149-07. That was recovered to 150-26, where a second consecutive higher close above 150-08 would signal a new rally leg underway. It would get a benefit of the doubt, but still be suspicious if not also above 151-22 — and meanwhile, simply trending back down to 147-24 is likelier.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The ongoing retracement extended deeper at Sunday night”s open, still stopping short of forming any distributive pattern that would offer a sell signal and target. Still monitoring for a buy signal, which is unlikely the first day following a gap down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night helped to reject Friday”s retest of 2.77 support. But closing above 2.83 is still required to signal momentum actually reversing up. It was probed intraday by a penny, but still being overlapped through the afternoon.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The narrow consolidation didn”t bounce any higher — let alone up to 1.1250-1.1275 — before trying to resume the decline Friday. Tuesday”s 1.1146 prior low was tested as support through the afternoon, undermining whether the decline has resumed, which is difficult after so shallow of a corrective bounce.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows before and after Friday”s open down to 1167.00 didn”t prevent bouncing back into positive territory through the afternoon. But the decline”s momentum remains intact.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday probed fresh lows down to 15.45 but recovered back to the ~15.75 open and above the week”s prior lows, undermining the break”s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s gap down through 148-20 extended down sharply intraday to fresh lows at 147-11. So long as 147-30 holds as resistance and Monday closes negative to confirm Friday”s breakout, the next lower objective in-play is 146-04.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight gapped down Friday to test 58.75 before reversing back up into positive territory. Closing back above 60.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation above 61.20.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium from Jul] Friday”s gap down to 2.78 as support reacted up to Thursday”s 2.82 open. A fresh low intraday struggled to recover 2.78 into the close. Closing above would signal a new rally leg underway 2.84.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1250-1.1275 bounce limit was shallow, but overnight firming was shallower. Thursday”s intraday high was even shallower. That”s pessimism and it suggests that a bigger bounce may be necessary before a deeper drop can begin. Dropping before another bounce should be short-lived.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Very narrow ranging Thursday avoided rejecting Wednesday”s close under its prior low. Fresh lows remain likely, targeting 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging continued to undermine the momentum of Tuesday”s break lower, while not reversing it. A fresh low is possible, but not yet likely to extend.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above Monday”s 149-24 close Wednesday only suggested that sellers were done, but closing above 150-08 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed back up. Thursday”s choppy inside day can”t afford to delay rallying early morning, or else fresh lows become likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down a little and ranging narrowly Thursday didn”t reject Wednesday”s close back under 60.70 support. The pattern isn”t distributive, so I don”t have a sell trigger, but probing fresh lows is likely if Friday”s open isn”t almost immediately rejecting and recovering the two-day dip.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday extended to 2.83 ahead of the EIA report. Its reaction down attacked 2.77 to within 1 cent before reversing back up to fresh session highs testing 2.85. Pullbacks must hold 2.83 to maintain the rally”s momentum, which still needs a second consecutive higher close Friday to confirm.