Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday had been the second consecutive pullback session, following Thursday”s confirmed breakout. Tuesday was required to rally, which it did, but not until a deeper dip overnight that was recovered entirely into Tuesday”s open. Closing above 1.1230 would target 1.1315 and 1.1380.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s closing test of 1187.00 resistance was extended overnight to probe above 1194.50 to 1198.00-1200.00 Tuesday. Closing back under 1194.50 would reinstate the decline targeting fresh lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s shallow bounce held 16.65 resistance to avoid suggesting the recovery is yet extending higher. Another dip to 16.50 support is likely, if not lower to retest 16.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing the 156-08 target overnight and reacting up into Thursday”s open would have been a credible low, except for the setup in-play that still requires at least a third lower close. Fresh lows tested 155-12, with 154-02 in-play so long as 156-08 isn”t recovered.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight probed fresh highs testing 61.00, targeting 61.75 and potentially 62.45. Meanwhile, the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close has been fulfilled.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down only slightly Tuesday and ranging slightly lower through the day is “ineffectual pessimism.” Rallying immediately Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout rested on its laurels for another day Monday, but didn”t really trap shorts by dipping deeply. Its shallow gap down didn”t extend, and the session ranged narrowly sideways, Further delaying the rally would be suspicious.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday to test 1187.00 resistance from testing the 1170.00-1174.00 target doesn”t begin a recovery any more credibly than did the prior gap up from attacking 1170.00-1174.00 to within a dime. But testing either 1187.00 or 1194.50 should contain the bounce and resume the decline..

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap up tested the upper-end of 16.50-16.65 resistance, and later probed above it. But the resistance should react back down to 16.15 before a durable rally leg can begin.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday was the fourth day of the four-day sequence, in which two consecutive breakouts would not be confirmed. That meant not closing negative. It”s not a required setup, just likely — likely enough to earn confidence buying into support. Testing 156-24 support down to 156-20 firmed, but didn”t react up enough to avoid closing negative. So, having confirmed Friday”s breakout, an eventual third lower close is now required, and now just likely — presumably at the outstanding 156-08 target, and potentially lower to 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial strength Monday was quickly retraced and reversed down to the 58.65 pullback limit. That held, keeping alive the upward momentum of last week”s confirmed breakout, targeting 61.75 and potentially also 62.45.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite easily having room to correct down to 2.67, Monday”s 2.74 low could hardly wait to recover back up to and through Friday”s 2.80 high. That impatience doesn”t prevent extending higher, but closing above 2.84 or back under 2.73 would be likelier to extend in.that direction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Treating Wednesday”s surge above 1.1020 resistance as a breakout, made Thursday”s higher high its confirmation, which requires at least an eventual third higher close. Friday tried initially to extend higher, but mostly just ranged around Thursday”s highs. Extending the rally above 1270 would target 1.1400, so long as 1.1120 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1182.70 bounce limit Thursday kept alive the 1170.00-1174.00 target, which was attacked night, and probed intraday Friday down to 1168.50. Closing above 1182.70 would now signal momentum reversing up, but extending lower would target 1154.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday to 16.15 instead of recovering it kept alive the reversal”s momentum, but that wasn”t exploited as Thursday”s 15.80 low was only retraced by 61.8% — outperforming Gold. Back above 16.15 would target 16.50-16.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday broke lower to test 157-16. So, Wednesday and Thursday”s probes under 159-14/159-26 may be the first half of a four-day sequence of two consecutive unconfirmed breakouts. That would make the pattern”s fourth day on Monday unlikely to confirm, either by not probing lower or by recovering from a probe lower. Actually confirming Friday”s breakout on Monday would target 156-08, and then potentially 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having confirmed Wednesday”s breakout above 57.70 with a second consecutive higher close above the 59.31 target on Thursday, Friday was free to dip. Holding 58.65 support keeps alive this leg”s upward momentum, next targeting 61.75 and 62.45. Often, at least firming on Friday is likely as a hedge against a weekend geopolitical surprise, but complacency seems more influential.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s surge was extended Friday and touched the 2.80 target. Now pullbacks should hold 2.71 to maintain the rally”s momentum, next targeting 3.06.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.1160-1.1195 resistance Wednesday didn”t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.1255. The probe reacted down, but spent the day ranging choppily around 1.1195. A bearish Pivot Reversal setup was avoided, but back under 1.1120 would still signal a pullback or something more substantial underway targeting 1.0855.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing under 1205.00-1208.50 Thursday targeted at least 1194.50, but there was no respite in Thursday”s drop that extended down relentlessly to within $2 of last week”s 1174.10 low. The original 1170.00-1174.00 target area is in-play so long as bounces meanwhile hold 1183.00 or at least 1187.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at the 16.50-16.65 resistance range”s upper-end was corrected Thursday by plunging to 15.80. Its recovery was testing 16.15, but not decisively recovering it to signal the decline had necessarily ended.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s drop down to 158-08 was recovered to test Wednesday”s 158-22 low as resistance, well under what was critical support at 159-14/159-26. Avoiding a decisive second consecutive lower close could still extend down, but I would be careful being long above 160-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 59.31 target tested at Wednesday”s high was pierced momentarily overnight and then intraday Thursday. Just avoiding a close back under 57.70 keeps the door open to a fresh high close that can still signal at least 61.75 is in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s reaction down from 2.60 had barely touched 2.55 support when the EIA report triggered a surge that attacked the 2.80 target. The target was never put into play through a close, so the pattern”s next higher target at 2.95 is now likely, so long as pullbacks hold 2.67-2.68 as support. There isn”t much tolerance for dipping much deeper — especially not on Friday, one day following the surge — which would start to suggest 2.49 will still be tested.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s gap up spiked through 1.1020 and eventually extended to 1.1195. Just recovering above 1.1020 would have suggested the recent bounce may be evolving into a much more substantial rally. But exploding higher does risk being exhaustive, and closing back under 1.1160 would instead suggest a much bigger top was now forming.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s surge to 1213.00 resistance reacted back down under 1208.50 and 1205.00 overnight. Wednesday”s opening gap back up to Tuesday”s close was filled, and the reversal down retested 1205.00, whose break Thursday would confirm the dip to at least 1194.50 underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, trading at a nickel premium to May] Testing of 16.65 resistance reacted down to test 16.50, whose break would still target 16.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s signal under 162-00 that the corrective bounce had ended and the decline had resumed was rewarded almost immediately by extending down Wednesday morning to 158-22. The outstanding 159-14/159-26 objective was probed, and two consecutive loses under it would signal a much deeper decline underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly persisted Wednesday morning between 56.60-57.70 until a tighter EIA report triggered a surge to fresh highs at the 59.31. Target. Now 58.65 must hold as support to maintain the rally”s momentum to 61.75-62.25.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The firming persisted Wednesday, all the way up to 2.60 resistance, despite never having filled the gap back down to Monday”s 2.49 gap. Closing above 2.60 would still put into play at least 2.80, but back under 2.55 would target the low”s retest.