Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fluctuation doesn”t accurately describe Sunday night and Monday”s choppiness. But it was all recovered before Tuesday”s open. The balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways, still needing a close above 1.1455 to trigger another breakout.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s “ineffectual optimism” didn”t immediately launch a decline Friday, and neither did Friday”s, which went out testing the 1226.50 bounce limit. But sharply lower lows through Tuesday down to 1203.30 confirm the decline”s momentum remains intact, still targeting 1185.00-1195.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s single-day surge to fresh highs had originated from an unstable base, which became obvious by Tuesday”s open rejecting the surge entirely back to Thursday”s 16.77 close. The balance of the opening action trended down to fresh lows at 16.25, next targeting 15.80.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next lower target at 144-18 was test Tuesday”s morning, and then broken on the way to piercing 144-00. An afternoon bounce was challenging 144-18 from below, but now a recovery must close above 144-30 to be credible.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Tuesday morning”s slide to 50.80 filled the gap back down to Thursday”s 51.25 close. Rallying more than $3 from there once again pierced the twice-tested 54.00 highs. There is no bearish reason for the retest at this stage of the pattern, so extending higher without delay is likely.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Gapping up Tuesday didn”t extend higher, and the morning pulled back to test the original 2.70 buy signal as support. Its reaction didn”t recover positive territory, but Wednesday morning should rally through 2.81 for optimal confirmation the pullback was only temporary.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday”s test of the 1.1425 resistance was probed momentarily, but Friday only ranged narrowly. Not closing higher prevented confirming Thursday”s breakout, which requires extending higher without delay to avoid becoming bearish.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s gap up is suspicious for developing from Thursday”s “ineffectual pessimism.” The close was still overlapping Thursday”s ~1227.00 high, so not extending higher immediately after the weekend would be likely to resolve down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s gap up extended sharply higher intraday. The 1-1/2 week old gap back to 17.40 was tested and held. This sort of surge is often exacerbated by the weekend”s impending illiquidity. That”s not necessarily bearish, but it does make it difficult to extend higher immediately.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The past several sessions” intraday probes of fresh lows had never reacted up to fresh highs, so the decline remained intact into the weekend. New lows down to 145-24 now make 144-18”s test likely.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Friday”s gap up that extended during the morning to test 53.40 was retraced down to 52.00. Positive territory was maintained throughout, and 52.85 was still being overlapped near the close. Since the 54.00 prior highs weren”t touched first, optimism remains restrained, and the recovery”s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s open retested the 2.68 low of Thursday”s negative reaction to the weekly EIA. The test held, and the earlier breakout eventually resumed the breakout by rallying sharply to 2.81. A new relative high close remains in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Two consecutive sessions of ineffectual pessimism launched Thursday”s rally that quickly extended to 1.1425 resistance. That”s natural resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the last singular plunge. Having held its test intraday, closing above 1.1455 Friday would signal the trend reversing the trend up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday held a test of the 1227.00 before reversing to fill the gap back down to Wednesday”s ~1220.00 close. Another midday bounce also failed. Being only a slightly lower close and still within Wednesday”s range, Wednesday”s break wasn”t confirmed. But the trend still remains down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging choppily Thursday, mostly in positive territory, didn”t resolve up. The “ineffectual optimism” makes credible any initial attempt to resume the decline Friday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another momentary probe of fresh lows Thursday was retraced back up into Tuesday and Wednesday”s prior range. Closing above 147-18, which is otherwise resistance, would start to signal the trend reversing back up. The trend otherwise remains down.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Wednesday”s ongoing test of the 49.35 pullback limit proved it had held when Thursday”s open gapped up above Wednesday”s own recovery highs. The morning”s high contained the balance of the session”s price action. Back above 51.85 early Friday would be credible for trending higher into the weekend.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday”s EIA report, after Wednesday”s close confirmed Tuesday”s breakout, couldn”t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but it requires the reaction”s recovery. Having held a test of 2.70 as support, back above 2.77 would start to signal the rally  had resumed, with at least one more higher close still outstanding.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday”s “ineffectual pessimism” wasn”t rejected immediately Wednesday. That wasn”t required, but it would have been optimal to establishing a low had formed. The delay could be dismissed considering the Eurogroup meeting, so long as the retest of Tuesday”s low holds.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having formed a Descending Triangle off of Monday”s corrective bounce, Wednesday”s break to a fresh low now requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm the next downleg underway, ultimately targeting 1185.00-1195.00. Closing back above 1226.00 would start to signal Wednesday”s breakout is false.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s selling originates from a higher level that help to avoid fresh lows. That”s not necessarily bullish, and it does help to confirm that Monday”s bounce was only a temporary correction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another fresh break Tuesday was not confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Wednesday. In fact, a fresh low was reversed back up into positive territory. This sequence can repeat indefinitely, but tends to end with a steep rally — but beware of Thursday”s 30-year auction results.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Tuesday night”s dip continued the reaction to the last upleg having failed to hold 52.85 and 51.75. The 49.35 pullback limit was tested intraday down to 48.00 before bouncing back to 50.00. Closing back above 49.35 suggests the pullback has ended, and it was being overlapped through the afternoon.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s test of the 2.70 buy signal was still being overlapped at the close instead of breaking decisively. Wednesday”s gap up to test 2.85 suggests the break is valid. I”m giving the pattern a benefit of the doubt that Thursday”s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, at least to recover from an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday”s gap down filled the gap back down to Monday”s gap down, proving Monday”s session (gapping down then reversed into positive territory) was “ineffectual optimism.” Tuesday”s gap down, which then hovered in negative territory without extending any lower, was “ineffectual pessimism” that neutralized Monday”s impatient buying. Recovering above Monday”s 1.1350-1.1360 highs would target 1.1425 and potentially 1.1540.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The decline”s 1231.80 target was retested Tuesday. The decline can resume so long as 1236.70 now holds as resistance. Closing back above 1244.50 would trigger a bigger bounce with potential to 1257.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap up was an inside day compared to Friday”s decline. So was Tuesday”s gap down that mostly ranged sideways. Back under 16.80 would at least target a retest of Friday”s 16.55 low. But closing first above 17.15 would trigger a bigger bounce to 17.40.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s gap down ranged around Friday”s 147-01 low, with room to 146-14 before a lower close would confirm a deeper drop underway targeting 144-16.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Monday”s test of last week”s high up to 54.00 barely held its 52.85 pullback limit, and Tuesday”s probe under 51.75 reversed momentum down intraday to probe under 50.00. Closing back above 52.85 is needed to launch another upleg.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The bottoming potential tried again to gain traction Tuesday, surging through the 2.70 buy signal, which was still being overlapped. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would greet Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength.