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Daily Spot – Page 218 – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Almost any initial strength Friday would have triggered a recovery. But the overnight open immediately dipped to a fresh low under 1.2100 and extended sharply lower to test 1.2010. A corrective bounce has room up to 1.2075 while maintaining potential for extending down to 1.1935.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping overnight allowed Friday”s open to immediately fulfill the decline”s minimum 1167.50 objective, piercing it by 20 cents. A consolidation there was retraced even more substantially, testing the 1195.00-1200.00 resistance range”s lower-end. So long as it isn”t recovered, then at least a dip to 1176.50 is likely.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s opening low once again held a test of the 15.55 area, and once again reacted up. Back under 15.70 would resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Momentary weakness at Friday”s open reacted up sharply from testing the 144-04 pullback limit and and surged to 145-30. Fresh highs remain in-play so long as 145-04 holds as support.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday night”s open spiked up to attack the 55.15 bounce limit to within a nickel, and then slid to fresh lows at 52.03. Reacting up sharply from there to 52.75 still reacted back down to the lows, leaving at least 51.75 in-play.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s gap up to 2.95 rejected all of Wednesday”s late afternoon slide to 2.88. That extended significantly higher intraday to fill the gap back up to Tuesday”s 3.09 close. Reacting down very sharply from he gap”s resistance fell back under 2.97. A bottoming pattern”s parameters should be obvious after Monday morning.

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s test of the 1.2155 target had reacted up Tuesday to 1.2195 resistance, but no higher. Wednesday”s open under 1.2155 trended down intraday to at least 1.2105.Immediately reversing up may be the only way to avoid trending down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s close and Wednesday”s open were each testing different ends of the 1195.00-1200.00 support. But Wednesday morning trended through and filled the gap back to Monday”s 1183.00 close. Post-close lower lows tested 1179.500, still suggesting that a fresh low at 1167.50 remains intact.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s tumble under its 16.20 pullback limit extended down sharply to retest prior lows, which still need to be probed before event suggesting a bottom is forming.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s open ignored Tuesday”s potential “ineffectual optimism” and firmed back to Tuesday”s upper-end. That suggests Tuesday wasn”t distributive, and so long as 144-04 holds as support, a recovery to fresh highs remains likely.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday”s firming wasn”t accumulative, ad proved by Wednesday”s probing of fresh lows down to 52.44, with 51.75 being the next lower target in-play before 47.45.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having failed its 3.14 pullback limit at Tuesday”s open, Wednesday”s open gapped down again and then trended down to new lows at 2.90 following the weekly EIA report.

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s test of the decline”s 1.2155 target began reversing up immediately Tuesday to the 1.2195 resistance whose recovery would signal the decline”s momentum had lapsed.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s open gapped up to and through the 1185.50 bounce limit and spiked up sharply from there to probe 1195.00-1200.00 resistance up to 1202.00. A fresh high attacking 1211.00 was retraced back down to the upper-end of 1195.00-1200.00. A second consecutive higher close would marginalize sellers for awhile. Back under 1191.00 would signal the bounce had failed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s initial gap up surged relatively shallowly, but that was remedied by another surge to fresh recovery highs. Failing to close above 16.20 Friday had made the pattern vulnerable to Monday”s dive. Tuesday”s close was still testing 16.20.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s gap up to Monday”s 144-04 resistance extended higher to 144-22 before ranging sideways into the afternoon. Pullbacks must once again hold 144-04 as support to maintain upward momentum targeting fresh recovery highs above 146-00.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday”s 52.90 low was pierced slightly overnight down to 52.70, before bouncing Tuesday to test 54.30. Unless at lesat 55.15 were recovered, the 51.75 and 47.45 targets remain intact.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having met the lower-end of its 3.22-3.29 target Monday, a pullback needed to hold 3.14-3.16 as support to maintain potential for extending to the target area”s upper-end. An overnight dip there was broken at the open to attack the original 3.07 buy signal. Back above 3.16 would resume the rally.

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s gap up to test 1.2222 wasn”t any likelier to gain traction than was Wednesday”s. That already proved out by reversing down intraday to fulfill the outstanding 1.2155 target. Closing back above 1.2195 would start to signal a bottom may be forming.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of 1195.00-1200.00 resistance wasn”t rejected by Monday”s open, but neither had it been confirmed. Tumbling into mid-morning took price back down to lower prior highs testing 1179.00. The 1167.50 target remains in-play so long as bounces now hold 1185.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing back under 16.20 Friday indicated the surge had not gained traction. Monday”s slide filled the gap back down to Wednesday”s 15.75 close. Fresh lows under 15.50 and 15.33 remain in-play.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 143-00 Wednesday kept intact the prior week”s pattern being only a temporary pullback. Extending higher into Monday”s open tested 144-04 resistance, the which had failed as support Monday. It performed better as resistance, defining Monday”s high.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Not rallying int the weekend had already suggested the recent base was failing. That was confirmed when rallying out of the weekend peaked immediately at 55.75 and probed fresh lows into the noon hour, which extended down to 52.90. If the 51.75 area doesn”t hold, then the next lower target would be 47.45.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night”s gap up to 3.08 was retraced 4 cents before recovering the 3.07 buy signal (basis Feb, 3.05 basis Jan) into Monday”s open. Follow-through already attacked the 3.22-3.29 target area”s lower-end.

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday”s bounce originated by gapping up, which isn”t appropriate for a durable bottom. Thursday night”s reversal back to the lows is much more appropriate for maintaining potential to 1.2155.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The recently formed Symmetrical Triangle broke higher first, rallying Thursday night to test resistance at 1195.00-1200.00. Closing any higher would start to signal a much bigger rally underway, instead of being a temporary false break before probing fresh lows down to at least 1167.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Thursday night to test 16.30 needed only to close back under 16.20 to help confirm the bounce was only a temporary detour before more substantially probing the week”s lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 143-00 Wednesday prevented the extended pullback from becoming something more substantial. Initially extending higher Thursday night still requires Friday”s close to be positive for the recovery potential to remain intact.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Yet another probe above 56.05-56.30, and yet another lack of inflection, resulting in yet another reaction back down to 55.15 support, again. Actually, this test didn”t hold, and is probing lower. Not yet launching a rally into and/or out of the weekend makes this recent ranging increasingly vulnerable to launch a new downleg instead.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sellers had already expended much energy overnight when rejecting Thursday night”s opening probe into positive territory, So, probing fresh trend lows before Friday”s open were retraced into positive territory. Closing back above 3.05 would be the earliest signal that at least a corrective bounce is underway targeting 3.20 or 3.27.