Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
While gapping up Wednesday does suggest a lot of selling pressure has been fulfilled, that”s not the optimal bottoming pattern. A fresh low testing 1.2155 remains likely despite the pattern”s minimum requirement already having been fulfilled Tuesday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy ranging overnight and into Wednesday”s session has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction could form a durable bottom if the false break were to fulfill the 1167.50 target.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming into Wednesday”s open has further delayed the almost required fresh lows that undermine any premature recovery attempt.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having failed to hold 144-04 Tuesday, a new downleg into the close was extended down to 142-11. A recovery wouldn”t be credible until closing back above at least 142-30 (which was being tested ahead of Wednesday”s close). More so, delaying a recovery through Friday would undermine whether the past week”s drop has been only a temporary correction, instead of actually the beginnings of a much deeper decline.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite Tuesday afternoon having extended above 56.05-56.30 resistance — and perhaps because the extension didn”t inflect aggressively — Wednesday”s open was greeted by gapping down back under 56.05. That didn”t extend down, but even just a corrective bounce should be underway already. Not rallying by Friday morning would start being bearish.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight persisted into Wednesday”s open. Fulfilling the pattern”s minimum requirement for at least a third lower close was made easier by extending down to 3.02 intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s bounce was already retraced fully into its close. Extending down overnight promised to satisfy the pattern”s minimum requirement for at least one more lower close. A lower low targeting 1.2155 is still in-play.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s plunge satisfied the pattern”s minimum requirement for at least one more lower close. Firming overnight didn”t threaten to recover the 1185.50 bounce limit, and the 1167.50 likely target remains in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Tuesday wasn”t likely to trigger a rally leg. Although the pattern”s minimum requirement below was satisfied Monday, stopping optimistically short of actually probing the prior low suggests the drop hasn”t yet ended.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 144-04 pullback limit shouldn”t even have been retested if the pullback from recent highs has ended. But its support failed and last Thursday night”s 143-03 low was probed down to 142-26/142-30 support. Now 143-16 must be recovered to signal the pullback has ended.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday”s dip back under 56.05-56.30 tried recovering overnight, only to fail again. But a decline still didn”t materialize, and Tuesday probed back above 56.05-56.30 to a fresh high above 57.50. Extending higher Friday would next target 60.40 and potentially 63.65.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh low overnight was recovered Tuesday morning, but momentum did not reverse up. At least a third lower close is in-play, although back above 3.27 would trigger a corrective bounce targeting 3.55.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday”s downtrend wasn”t duplicated Monday. But neither did the gap up extend higher as Thursday”s “lower prior highs” held as resistance. The decline”s momentum remains intact so long as 1.2310 isn”t recovered.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging from last week”s last several sessions had persisted Sunday night, but Monday morning slid back to and through last week”s lows to test 1174.50 and almost $2 lower post-close. The requirement for at least one more lower close is now fulfilled, but the trend remains down with potential to 1167.50 and 1156.00 so long as 1185.50 isn”t recovered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After trading out the week narrowly, and still ranging narrowly Sunday night, Monday”s break lower returned to recent lows. But only back to the lows, stopping optimistically short of actually forming a bottom. But the eventual third lower close that was put into play last week has been fulfilled.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh recovery highs Sunday night were retraced before Monday”s open. Holding above 144-04 kept alive the recovery”s potential for retesting last week”s highs.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh highs overnight were unable to avoid retesting the 56.05-56.30 pullback limit that was recovered Friday. The inside day was biased downward, so immediate strength Tuesday — especially back above 56.30 — would be likely to extend to fresh highs.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s drop was no false break, as Monday”s open gapped down even more substantially. The prior week”s consolidation still suggests that it will be retested and recovered, but the confirmed breakout now requires there to be at least a third lower close before a recovery back above 3.20 can be credible for extending higher — presumably by then at a very steep slope.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite not gapping down Friday, Thursday”s drop extended soon after the open. A second consecutive lower close requires at least a third lower close. It need not be consecutive, but it may be attempted since Monday morning”s often duplicate Friday trending.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slight firming Thursday night was retraced before Friday”s open, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. The requirement for at least one more lower close remains outstanding.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s narrowly ranging day keeps alive the attraction to at least one more lower close as required by there having been two consecutive lower breakout closes..

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing overnight under Thursday”s test of 143-16 support was recovered into Friday”s open and extended back above 144-04. Closing any higher would all but ensure at least a corrective bounce to attack or even to retest the week”s highs.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite having dipped Thursday so close to Monday”s night”s low under 54.00, firming overnight recovered intraday to test what was 56.05-56.35 support as resistance. I would have expected a more immediate inflection up, but the resistance did ultimately give way Friday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Stopping Thursday optimistically short of filling the gap back to Tuesday”s 3.62 gap was potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. But sellers ran with that opening Friday and gapped down to and through my 3.56 limit. Gapping up enough Monday could form an Island Reversal, but avoiding a second consecutive lower close in any way would at least prevent confirming the breakout so the bottoming pattern could resume.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down to fresh lows Thursday neither extended down further intraday nor bounced. Extending the decline Friday should begin by gapping down again. No immediate recovery from this stage would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially rallying well into positive territory before Thursday”s open hadn”t invalidated the eventual third lower close that earlier sellers had earned. Reversing back to unchanged further suggested that a fresh low is coming.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s gap up was retraced entirely and quickly to unchanged, where a lot of energy was expended to avoid reversing into negative territory, despite there being a lower low required.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under 145-00 Wednesday robbed the rally of its traction, but held above 144-19 to avoid reversing the trend down. Probing lower Thursday held 143-16 support, but didn”t close above 144-19 to resume the rally.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A pullback retested the 56.05-56.35 support range.Thursday but ultimately probed under it back to Wednesday”s 54.30 low. Monday night”s low under 54.00 doesn”t require a retest, but the proximity makes its retest likely.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After gapping up to test 3.75 resistance, the EIA report triggered a reaction back down to within 2 cents of filling the gap back to Tuesday”s 3.62 close. Holding its test would still be in-line with a bottom forming.