Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
After fulfilling the 1.2518 minimum bounce objective Tuesday, its reaction down had room down to 1.2400 without actually reversing momentum down. Wednesday”s dip back under 1.2495 extended down to 1.2400 before the FOMC news triggered a bounce that was resolved back under 1.2400 to trigger a new downleg underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Wednesday absorbed the prior two sessions” shock-to-the system from their big intraday drops. Having confirmed the first day”s break with a second consecutive lower close, an eventual third lower close is required. The post-close spike down to 1185.50 in reaction to the FOMC news did not fulfill that outstanding lower objective.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping at Wednesday”s open was reversed slightly positive, forming essentially only an inside day that has yet to fulfill at least one more lower close as is now required.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging ahead of Wednesday afternoon”s FOMC policy statement suddenly spiked down to 144-20, testing the pattern”s 145-00 pullback limit, which prevents triggering a sell signal if held as support.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[Rolling coverage forward to Feb, which is at a 30-cent premium to Jan] Wednesday”s open retested Tuesday”s gap down bar down to neutralize its attraction below, and then began firming. A late-morning surge tested the pattern”s 58.95 bounce limit, which eventually retraced down under Tuesday”s high to attack what is now a 56.05-56.30 pullback limit. A fresh low isn”t required before launching an upleg, which would be triggered by a second consecutive higher close Thursday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having filled the outstanding gap below on Tuesday, the bottoming pattern reared its head again by gapping up Wednesday. That leaves outstanding the new gap below to Tuesday”s 3.62 close. But extending above 3.75 would break free from its attraction below and launch a new upleg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Failing to reject Friday”s range by probing into it intraday Monday. That all but required extending higher to at least 1.2518 or higher regardless of the resolution. Tuesday”s open gapped up to test 1.2518 up to 1.2579, but soon reacted down to Friday”s 1.2485 high as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down after Monday”s close further probed under the 1212.70 sell signal that was probed already Sunday night. Bouncing into Monday”s open up to 1220.00 on falling stocks was nevertheless rejected by another downleg to fresh lows at 1187.80. The second consecutive lower close under prior lows now requires at least a third, not necessarily consecutive.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s post-close slide extended down sharply overnight to test 16.07 before reacting up into Tuesday”s open to 16.66. That didn”t prevent gapping down under 16.40 and extending to fresh lows at 15.54. Dropping so much so quickly doesn”t change that this is a second consecutive lower close that now requires an eventual third lower close before a rally can be credible — despite the drop”s origin not having been optimal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Plunging stocks before Tuesday”s open triggered a flight-to-safety that spiked up to 146-19. It was retraced down to 146-00 by the open, and retraced to fill ALMOST fill the gap back down to Monday”s 145-04 close. That optimism, and still overlapping Friday”s high two days later, does suggest risk down to 144-00 on Wednesday before or after the FOMC event.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The next lower attraction at 54.75 was probed overnight by $1+ before Tuesday”s gap down reversed up sharply $2 into positive territory. The gap down requires a retest so long as 58.65 isn”t recovered, so the balance of the session ranged narrowly unchanged.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday immediately filled the gap back to Thursday”s 3.64 close, which remained likely since 3.69 was still being tested Monday instead of confirming Friday”s breakout above it. There”s potential to probe a fresh low down to 3.56, but all within the context of forming a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s dip back under last week”s highs could have invalidated Friday”s break higher, but Friday”s range was probed intraday. Now, a reversal down would be credible after probing under 1.2400, or after at least testing 1.2518.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s slide gapped down Monday to probe under the 1212.70 sell signal. Although Friday”s post-open bounce had filled the gap back to Thursday”s close and neutralized its attraction above, gapping down isn”t the optimal path down from last week”s highs. Triggering the sell signal gets a benefit of the doubt, but it is otherwise vulnerable to recovery back above 1218.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap down probed under the 16.98 sell signal, and trended down into the afternoon to test 16.42. Back above 16,72 would suggest the drop was a temporary false break, targeting a probe of fresh highs above 17.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was too shallow to gain traction, allowing Monday morning to firm and to retest Friday”s highs up to 145-24. Dipping back to unchanged and within Friday”s range prevents triggering higher targets, but still doesn”t reverse the trend back down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night”s gap down to 56.50 was recovered back above Friday”s 57.60 close. We discussed during the Market Tour why that”s not the optimal path higher, so it wasn”t surprising for reacting down to new lows testing 55.75 — with potential for noise down to 54.75 before suggesting that a bigger downleg is underway.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite confirming Friday”s close above 3.69 was relevant, Sunday night”s gap up didn”t extend higher and only weakened before Monday”s open. There was no second consecutive higher close, although 3.69 did hold its test as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday”s inside day was retraced Thursday, but not rejected, so sellers had not regained traction ahead of Friday”s open. An overnight rally gapped up to probe above the week”s 1.2445 highs, attacking 1.2495 resistance, but not trending up intraday. Still, unless reversed down through Monday morning, a fresh high at 1.2520 should be tested next.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having been recovered entirely intraday, Thursday”s 1216.50 low was retested Friday morning, avoiding the 1212.70 sell signal. That”s more wasted selling pressure since the range persisted, and potential for fresh highs above 1241.00 remained intact.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s inside day was biased downward, making an upward resolution likely so long as 16.95 continues holding as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having recovered to its 144-04 pullback limit through Thursday”s close, the rally”s 144-27 target remained intact. Friday”s open gapped up through it to 145-05 and tested 145-18 intraday amid falling stocks. A normal corrective pullback now has room down to 143-16, but closing under 142-25 is needed to actually reverse the trend back down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 60.33 target”s attack defined support for almost two days, but then broke lower to the extended decline”s lowest calculable target at 57.60. Closing any lower would require bounces to hold 58.65 back above if the trend remains down. Otherwise, closing back above 60.33 prior to a lower close would signal that momentum had lapsed.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Friday back above 3.69 and extending intraday to close higher does suggest that a bottom is forming. The gap back down to Thursday”s 3.64 close may be retested during the bottoming process. The preferably bottoming pattern would fill that gap, and still close back above 3.69.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

FRIDAY”S DAILY WRAP WILL BE PUBLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday”s inside day that was biased upward was likely to resolve down, despite probing slightly higher overnight. But the lower-end of the range was probed Thursday afternoon, now all but requiring the pattern to trend down obviously if a bigger bounce is to be avoided.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday to test 1216.00 was recovered back into positive territory testing 1233.00, still likely to probe above 1239.00 before a downdraft would be credible for extending.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Thursday was recovered entirely. Just avoiding a close under 16.95 still gets every benefit of the doubt of resolving higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 144-14 target was pierced by 1 tick overnight before reacting down under 144-04 into Thursday”s open, eventually testing 143-11. Closing under 144-04 would suggest fresh highs are no longer in-play, but it was still being attacked late Thursday.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still overlapping 60.33 through Thursday”s close, despite also probing under it, prevents triggering a new target. That might be combined with the geopolitical risk premium that often firms into the weekend. But only aggressive rallying at this stage would be credible for forming a bottom.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s close above 3.69 wasn”t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday. A higher high was probed in reaction to EIA, but that reacted back down under 3.69. Back above 3.69 Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday.