Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Except for a momentary fresh low, Friday’s range at trend lows persisted Monday morning… and Monday afternoon, too. The latter is interesting, because the holding pattern was free to resolve after noon. This delay suggests the next trending attempt will be false. Or, at least, its burden of proof will be more significant.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A fresh low Sunday night wasn’t t revisited intraday, but neither was it rejected by an intraday rally. Now closing only above 1222.80 would signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Post-open new lows were well above the overnight lows, but still negative. That underpferformance vs. Gold is an interesting turn that puts the two markets back in sync, so that a rally would be that much more credible for both, triggered back above 17.92.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s bounce extended higher Sunday night to attack its 137-10 objective. The consolidation that contains it was barely pierced intraday, and held. The reaction hovered in positive territory, reflecting “ineffectual pessimism” that suggests a more successful effort to extend higher will follow.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Already having missed the optimal window for ending the pullback attacking 93.00, Sunday night resumed the pullback that extended Monday to 90.41. There is no active buy signal.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday didn’t prevent an intraday dip to test 3.83 that neutralized the pullback target’s attraction. The close had recovered back into positive territory — not above the morning’s high, which would have formed a “Pivot Reversal,” but any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s bounce had filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, only neutralizing its attraction above instead of exceeding it to trigger higher attraction. Friday’s fresh lows created a new gap, but won’t be bullish without gapping up again on Monday.
Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s recovery had settled at a test of higher prior lows, failing to reject the decline’s sponsorship. The consequence was to retest the 1216.00 lows down to 1214.20, and to close Friday under prior sessions’ lows. Gapping up above 1220.20 and 1223.70 would be credible for launching a sizable corrective rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing only to higher prior lows at Thursday’s close prevented the recovery attempt from gaining traction. The consequence was a slide to sharply lower lows Friday testing 17.80. It is the second consecutive lower close from the prior consolidation, so a third lower close is likely before a durable recovery would be credible, unless Monday’s open were to retrace the entirety of Friday’s range.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight fulfilled the requirement to probe however briefly under Thursday morning’s Double Bottom. Friday’s gap up to and through 136-04 was retraced enough to qualify as filling the gap back to Thursday’s close, neutralizing that attraction below. And the balance of the session rallying to fresh highs fulfilled the buy signal. The minimum objective is to retest the prior consolidation around 137-10. Closing any higher would target 138-02 and potentially also 138-16.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[Rolling coverage today from Oct to Nov] The new front-month is trading at about a .70 discount to our prior levels… The pullback that needed to attack the 92.60 area (basis Nov, 93.30 basks Oct) was exceeded a little Thursday, and more on Friday. Back above 92.60 would start to signal the pullback had run its course. But that should be almost immediate Monday to be valid, since the optimal resolution would have started rallying already Friday.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only holding at 3.91 Thursday instead of recovering kept alive potential for fulfilling the preferred pullback target at 3.83. Friday’s low tested and held 3.83, also not recovering it into the close, but creating potential for a bottom to be obvious Monday.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s post-close probe of fresh lows was retraced at least enough for Thursday’s gap down to be back above prior lows. There’s no requirement to retest the overnight low, or the gap down since its opening print wasn’t a fresh low. That’s not a bottom until momentum reverses up, and Thursday only neutralized the attraction above back to Wednesday’s 1.2933 close. Closing above 1.2955 would be bullish.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight extended Wednesday’s post-close slide, probing well under the decline’s lowest calculable target at 1220.30 down to 1216.30. But the decline’s lowest calculable target was recovered through Thursday’s close back to 1227.00, instead of closing above it to signal whether or not the decline is extending. Closing back above 1231.00 would signal at least a corrective rally underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down to new lows was recovered back to the 18.51 prior low, potetnially robbing the decline of its traction, but not forming a bottom. The open’s 18.37 gap will need to be retested, and rejected back above higher prior lows, to form a durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s post-close lows weren’t retested intraday Thursday, which opened at or above Wednesday’s late post-FOMC lows. Closing above 136-04 is still needed to even begin momentum may be reversing up, if only for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
[Rolling coverage forward to Nov after Friday] The bullish pattern preferred a pullback much closer to 93.00 than Wednesday’s dip, and Thursday’s low came within a nickel. The bullish pattern also preferred the pullback to be done no later than Thursday’s close. Early strength Friday, or recovering into positive territory from probing negative, would be credible for resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction to the EIA report confirmed Tuesday and Wednesday’s rally above 4.00 had extended prematurely. The reaction down under 3.91 ultimately held, although a deeper dip to 3.83 then or Friday would be preferable for completing an accumulative pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Testing of 1.2955 resistance was already well understood to be largely irrelevant for timing purposes, and FOMC day left no doubt. Tuesday’s singular probe above it was reversed back under it in reaction to the afternoon announcement. But only momentarily before being probed again. There is no resulting signal, which is essentially bullish to have avoided a sell signal.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The knee-jerk reaction down to the FOMC news attacked Sunday night’s 1226.00 low to within $2, then lower after an interim bounce up to  1236.50. All of which developed post-close, so closing back above 1236.50 would now qualify as a buy signal.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close low in reaction to FOMC’s statement and Yellen’s Q&A tested 18.55. It’s still not a fresh low, so a buy signal triggered back above 18.85 would be suspicious, but still get a benefit of the doubt.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday night’s bounce may have helped to absorbed selling pressure, but not completely. Wednesday’s reaction down to the FOMC news probed fresh lows down to 135-23 first, and then lower after an interim bounce to 136-10. Closing above 136-04 would now signal that momentum is reversing up, but there is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s pullback probed under 94.00, but not as close to 93.00 as would be preferable considering how aggressively the last dip was retraced. In any case, closing back above 95.00 would seal a bottom and confirm the trend has reversed up.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s surge extended slightly to probe just above 4.00. Monday night’s dip to only 3.87 instead of 3.83 will attract price down to it if reacting poorly to Thursday’s EIA. The pattern doesn’t otherwise require a particular reaction, but a test of 3.83 would be a compelling long-entry.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ongoing narrow ranging at 1.2955 had pretty much ruined its relevance as a signal. It was probed Tuesday by a surge to 1.3005, with upside potential to 1.3020 before confirming a new rally underway.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight testing the 1244.00 area gained no more traction than did Sunday night’s dip to 1226.00. But returning intraday to 1232.00 was apparently too deep too soon, and snapped back up to test the 1242.00 area. The nesxt probe above 1241.50 would be likely to extend higher in a trend reversal. But back under 1234.50 again would target a retest of 1226.00

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight reversed down hard upon testing the 18.85 resistance. Any subsequent probe above it should gain traction and extend beyond 19.10, whose recovery through the close would signal the trend had reversed up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying into Tuesday came within 3 ticks of the 136-27 resistance whose recovery would trigger a bigger rally leg underway. The reaction down consolidated around 136-00, presumably having chipped away at resistance ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policyt statement.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s test of 92.50 extended higher Tuesday to attack 95.00. There being no unfinished business below — the 91.00 target was tested and retested before Monday’s close above the 92.50 reversal signal — any pullback would be required to recover for an eventual third higher close.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Pre-open dipping down to 3.87 recovered through the open back into positive territory and higher, testing 4.00.

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