Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The 1.2955 buy signal / resistance continued to keep price ranging narrowly around it Monday morning, as Friday had initiated since its recovery.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1226.00 were recovered to gap up and test the 1234.50 bounce limit at Monday’s open. It was probed up to 1239.00, albeit to range widely around 1234.50. The overnight low’s retest wouldn’t be likely so long as 1231.00 holds as support.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night and Monday’s relatively narrow ranging consolidated under 18.85 resistance. Closing above it to signal a rally attempt would still need to recover 19.10 to confirm.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s open gapped up to undermine the decline’s momentum. The gap up was minimal, but in retrospect seems to have robbed the decline of its traction. There is no unfinished business below to prevent a rally from developing, triggered back above 136-27. Rallying Tuesday morning from whatever level would be likely to extend intraday in that direction.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight lows down to 90.63 fulfilled the requirement to retest the decline’s original 91.00 target, regardless of its reaction up to 93.00. I still have no lower calculable targets, but now recovering 92.50 would signal a rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Sunday night was initially resisted by the 3.87 buy signal, which was then tested as support after probing above it. Its test as support launched a steep and substantial surge through 3.91. Having played out overnight, there is no attractive risk:reward setup for quickly getting involved in the pattern. In fact, post-open action only consolidated. But an intraday pullback to 3.83 might be compelling for long-entry.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s bounce had stopped pessimistically short upon attacking 1.2955 resistance. Friday’s open leveraged that positioning by probing above it, but enough pessimism persists that 1.2955 was still being ranged around.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows fulfilled the decline’s next lower target at 1231.00. That lowered the bounce limit down to 1234.50, and its test produced a new low under 1229.00. Its reaction up also held 1234.50, which reacted back down to 1231.00. The pattern is next targeting 1220.00-1222.00 so long as bounces continue to hold 1234.50 as resistance.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The pattern broke from Gold by not even challenging fresh lows intraday Friday. Closing back above 19.10 would signal the trend has reversed back up, so it should hold as resistance until Gold has bottomed.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite having laid the groundwork Thursday for a recovery by chipping away at resistance above and neutralizing an attraction below, Friday’s open gapped down to new lows for the trend. Fresh multi-session lows Friday tend to be duplicated Monday morning, so not gapping up substantially Monday would make the decline likely to extend.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s rally from fulfilling the decline’s 91.00 target wasn’t really retraced from its 93.45 peak. Shallow overnight weakness recovered momentarily to a fresh high. Afternoon action finally started falling to at least test 92.00, still targeting a retest or attack on the lows.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s opening dip filled the outstanding gap down to 3.79. Filling it Thursday would have been bullish. Only hovering above it after attacking it so closely early in the day reflected “ineffectual optimism.” The dip back was recovered into positive territory above 3.83, short of 3.87 which would have been impressive. A retest of 3.79 or even fresh lows can’t yet be discounted.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I published a blog post Thursday morning that further detailed the Crude Oil and Gold targets being met. It is linked here.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Overnight strength had extended already to attack 1.2955 resistance, but never probed it intraday. That would trigger a buy signal targeting 1.3000 and potentially 1.3140. Closing back under 1.2880 would resume the decline.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close bounce was no more bullish than Tuesday’s, and less so, as its resolution probed sharply lower fresh lows. The 1243.00 target was probed down to 1235.30, and then retested by its reaction up. The balance of the session’s range narrowed into a Symmetrical Triangle whose first break lower would target 1231.00, but breaking higher first would likely fail from 1244.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open gapped down to and through 18.85 and extended down to attack 18.55. Closing back above 19.10 is the minimum requirement to suggest that an upleg might be forming.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s open did what Wednesday’s open was already positioned for, gapping up from the new low close. Tuesday’s “higher prior lows” at 137-21 held as resistance as the balance of the session dipped back down to test Wednesday’s 137-06 close. That neutralizes any attraction below while chipping away at resistance above, but it does not form a buy signal.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The pattern’s 91.00 target was met before the open and probed. No lower calculable target for this leg resulted in a reversal well back into positive territory testing 93.00. That’s unlikely to extend immediately, but closing above 91.60 has all but assured the next dip down will further form a more durable bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s open was already spiking down to 3.87 support before reacting to the EIA report by tumbling to 3.83. The 3.79 gap was not filled, despite hovering optimistically above it through the balance of the session. Closing back above 3.91 Friday would be compelling for long-entry, but a bottom is otherwise premature.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday night’s bounce up to 1.2955 resistance was retraced Wednesday back into Mon-Tue’s 1.2865-1.2895 ranging. So long as the test holds, closing back above 1.2955 could seal a bottom.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post close surge above 1250.50 resistance up to 1258.50 confirmed it was only temporary by retracing entirely into Wednesday’s open and then probing fresh lows intraday down to 1244.50. The minimum 1243.00 target remains in-play so long as 1250.50 continues holding tests as resistance.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s dip held Tuesday’s prior low, hovering just above 18.85 support, suggesting that at least another lower low is developing.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down didn’t extend lower intraday, but Wednesday’s open gapped down again anyway. The duplicate effort also avoided extending any lower intraday, which is in-line with previous expectations that sellers were losing momentum. Wednesday afternoon was still testing 137-10 support to keep alive potential for a recovery, but this pattern can repeat indefinitely before finally launching at least a corrective leg.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday morning’s bounce attacking 94.00 resistance confirmed it was temporary by resuming the decline Wednesday to fresh lows. Now having come within 25 cents of its 91.00 target, bounces should hold 91.56 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report may be the catalyst that produces the consequences for having rallied too optimistically. Wednesday dipped only slightly at the open, but didn’t extend down intraday. Filling the gap back down to 3.79 would help to form a bottom. But not closing under 3.91 Thursday would suggest a bigger rally is underway, anyway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday night’s probe Monday afternoon’s low remained under pressure somewhat at Tuesday’s open. It reacted back up to attack Monday’s 1.2955 highs, which allows a recovery attempt to gain traction so long as 1.2900 now holds as support.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing off of 1253.30 held 1259.00 resistance before reversing down to new lows testing 1248.00. Closing back above 1250.50 undermined the drop’s momentum, but potential for extending down to 1243.00 remains alive since 1253.50 wasn’t recovered.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows narrowly avoided testing 18.85 support, but failed to recover 19.10, which suggests the drop’s momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Several consecutive wide-ranging sessions have made it difficult to extend down. Fresh lows overnight at 137-14 forced Tuesday’s open to gap down, but not to extend lower. The balance of the session ranged sideways back to 138-00, filling the gap back to Monday’s close there but neither improving nor reversing down. Now a bounce has potential to 138-16 — if not already likely to test it — before signaling a much bigger corrective bounce underway targeting 138-24.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Bouncing overnight to attack 94.00 resistance was reversed intraday back down to 92.50, ending the day with a test of the 92.65 bounce limit and still targeting 91.00.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to and through 3.91 extended to test 4.01 at Tuesday’s high. The gap left outstanding down to 3.87 Is likely to be filled, but not soon if Wednesday were to extend the rally.

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