Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
No volatility Friday made volatility unlikely Monday morning. Having passed that restraint, the balance of the session extended the decline to test 1.2885. Just closing above 1.2955 would be the minimum requirement to even begin suggesting the decline’s momentum was lapsing.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not yet recovering above 1270.00 kept Friday’s return to 1265.00 vulnerable to extending down. Thursday night’s 1258.00 low was retested Monday morning on the way down to 1252.00. Having tested 1253.30, closing back above 1262.00 would suggest that Monday’s dip was a temporary detour being reversed back up. Delaying a recovery would next target 1243.00 and then lower.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday morning’s drop attacked Thursday’s low, and later broke it, testing the upper-end of 18.85-19.10 support that had defined June’s low. Its test must be rejected quickly, and in tandem with Gold, to avoid trending down substantially lower.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday from Friday’s 137-26 fresh low was in-line with expectations for the pattern to continue ranging widely around last Tuesday’s 138-22/138-25 close. So was the complete retracement back down to fresh lows at 137-23, albeit surprisingly abrupt. I suspect that abruptness is pessimism, which would allow a bigger bounce triggered above 138-02/138-06 targeting 139-24. Otherwise, extending the decline already would target 136-26.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Filling the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 93.00 close had failed to recover Friday back above 93.65 to end the decline, which extended to new lows on Monday, now probably targeting 91.00. That lower target is likely despite Monday’s bounce from 91.80 up to 92.75.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up to 3.83 partially suggests the test of 3.79 support has stretched selling too far to be sustained. But it must extend to close above 3.87 to even begin suggesting that momentum might be reversing up. And first filling the gap back to Friday’s close testing 3.79 would be preferable.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Already shell-shocked from Thursday’s pre-open plunge and post-open slide, Friday’s Employment Situation report didn’t trigger a recovery or an extension of the week’s decline. Since Monday morning’s action often duplicates Friday’s pattern — regardless of gapping up or down out of the weekend — post-open action should also be contained into the noon hour.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Thursday night tested the room for noise down to 1259.00 by $1, recovering to the decline’s original 1265.50 target ahead of Friday’s NFP report. Its reaction up attacked 1275.50 before retracing entirely back down to 1265.50. The missed opportunity to rally may simply be delayed, and back above 1270.00 would be credible for launching a rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Thursday night brought the market in lockstep with Gold so that a bottom could be considered complete if any resistance were probed. Almost any strength Monday would suggest that a bottom had formed and was resolving up. Fresh low were welcome before Friday, but now fresh lows would be redundant and bearish.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The knee-jerk reaction down to NFP touched Tuesday night’s 137-28 low and recovered back up above 139-00. held But another fell dip to 138-08, as the pattern continues ranging widely around Wednesday’s 138-22/138-25 close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down extended Friday, eventually failing to hold 94.00 support, filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 93.00 close. One attempt to recover back above 93.65 failed, but back above 94.65 would still signal the dip had ended and momentum was reversing up.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s dip attracted no new sponsorship into the weekend, hovering around 3.79 support. Back above 3.83 and 3.91 would signal a rally underway. No new levels were established on the way down that weren’t already influential on the way up, further suggesting the pullback is only temporary.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s optimism had prevented forming my bottoming setup which required first probing under Tuesday’s low. Gapping up could have extended higher only temporarily, but it failed to close above 1.3145. Thursday’s resolution was substantial, reacting to the ECB rate cut by plummeting to 1.3020. And that was extended even lower intraday to test 1.2950. Closing back above 1.3020 would trigger only a corrective bounce targeting 1.3085.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further ahead of Thursday’s ECB news didn’t prevent intraday weakness back down to the decline’s original 1265.50 target. A fresh low at 1259.00 isn’t required before a bottom can finish forming, not unless Silver is extending down further Friday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of the ECB statement was reversed to finally retest Tuesday’s low, which Gold had done already before Wednesday’s open. Closing back above 19.30 would help to seal a bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s post-open recovery extended slightly higher overnight, and spiked up Thursday morning in reaction to the ECB rate cut. But the requirement to retest Wednesday’s 138-06 opening gap was fulfilled on the way down to 138-02. Closing under 138-06 keeps alive potential for the drop to extend, next targeting 137-12.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Overnight weakness retraced Wednesday’s recovery leg to test at least 94.30 as support (by 15 cents), reflecting enough pessimism to consider the pullback as constructive to the recovery. The attraction above at 96.40-96.80 can now help to launch another upleg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted by a bounce testing 3.87 resistance, and reacted down to 3.79. Closing back above 3.83 would signal the drop’s momentum had lost traction. But a close back above 3.87 to signal momentum reversing up would still need to recover 3.91 to confirm.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s open gapped up without yet probing under Tuesday’s lows, where a recovery would have been more credible. Not holding 1.3145 as support was probably due to having bounced prematurely.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight stopped $2 short of fully utilizing the room available down to 1259.00 without yet signaling a new downleg underway. Firming intraday tested 1270.00 whose recovery would start to suggest the decline was bottoming.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lacking fresh lows overnight that Gold did produce, the two markets stopped tracking each other as a durable bottom would prefer. Rallying without any first probing a fresh low could extend, but not as reliably.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s break lower wasn’t retraced at all before extending down to fresh lows overnight at 138-00. But an intraday bounce recovered into positive territory testing 139-00, trying to hold positive territory above 138-22/138-25 as support.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s drop to 92.90 far exceeded the 94.00 target’s pullback objective from 96.00. That wasn’t a sell signal, but only 94.00‘s immediate recovery would prove sellers were satisfied already. In fact, Wednesday’s open was already attacking 94.00, and the session extended to attack 96.00. A bottom still seems to be forming, and close above 96.40-96.80 would confirm the recovery has resumed.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending the pullback to 3.87 support allowed for a close above 3.94 to seal a bottom. Testing 3.87 overnight was recovered as the dip extended down to 3.83. Perhaps the extended dip was only pessimism ahead of the EIA report, and closing back above 3.91 Thursday would signal the trend reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down to a fresh low didn’t extend down intraday, and actually firmed back into Friday’s range. Trying but failing to extend the decline any lower Wednesday morning would be likely to end the session substantially higher.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down fulfilled the outstanding 1265.00 target, and continued testing it throughout the day’s narrow ranging there. That is not accumulation, so there is no buy signal. There is room for noise down to 1259.00 before suggesting the trend is extending instead of bottoming.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh low held 19.10 support. Any lower would have room down to 18.85 before signaling a bigger downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which is at a 1-14 discount under Sep] Gapping down Tuesday confirmed that Friday’s test of the prior high was forming a more durable top. Closing under 139-14 suggests a new downleg is underway, so long as 139-24 isn’t recovered through the close. But a test of 139-24 can’t be ruled out prior to extending the decline.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The reaction down from the 96.00 target extended through its 94.00 pullback target to test 92.90 intraday. That’s as much selling pressure as could be expended without signaling a new downleg underway. Closing back above 94.00 would signal that sellers gained no traction for the effort.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s reaction down from last week’s unstable bounce is the product of its excessive optimism. Now attacking 3.87 support and closing back above 3.94 can seal a bottom.

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