Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s dead-cat bounce was retraced entirely Thursday, but then extended to fresh lows Friday at 1.3145. This is problematic to a recovery, since Monday morning tends to duplicate Friday’s bias. So, rallying Monday would be that much more bullish, but would need to be maintained through the Monday holiday US.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh reaction lows overnight held 1284.50 as support, but Friday’s bounce to 1292.50 also reversed back down to test 1287.00 support. No new signal was triggered either way, but the recent bounce wasn’t confirmed, either.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging didn’t recover the 19.60 sell signal that had been triggered already, and maintained its dip back down to 19.40.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s retest of prior highs continued consolidating above 141-14 support into the weekend, neither breaking lower to signal a reversal underway, nor extending higher to confirm a breakout.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
More fresh highs Friday probed 95.00 to confirm the recovery underway. Its minimum 96.00 target as only a corrective bounce is being attacked to within a quarter, where there is potential for a corrective dip to 94.00 before extending the recovery to higher high.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s choppiness and conflicting signals continued to restrain trending Friday, suggesting at least a momentary dip would be needed before any new trending could be credible.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Already attacking the lows Thursday after Wednesday’s momentary dead-cat bounce is a reflection of pessimism. That can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Closing back above 1.3200-1.3230 would signal a much bigger bounce underway.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Perhaps it was overnight Ukraine-Russia news that triggered a surge to 1296.00 resistance. The two days testing the 1284.50 pullback limit didn’t hurt. But the reaction back down under Tuesday’s 1291.00 high to 1288.00 maintains the pattern’s corrective character. Back under 1287.50 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1284.50. Closing above 1296.00 would still suggest a bigger rally underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength up to “higher prior lows” at 19.87 reversed back down at Thursday’s open and failed to hold the 19.60 sell signal. Another gap was left outstanding, but not very close, so that the attraction to filling it might generate momentum that restarts the decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ongoing pessimism while filling the gap back up to 141-01 suggested that fulfilling the 141-06 target could retest the 141-21 prior high. Wednesday night’s surge extended to 141-30, so that closing Thursday back under 141-14 would signal the prior high’s retest had held. Closing back under 141-06 would signal that momentum was reversing down.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming again Thursday probed above 94.00, putting into play at least 96.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 93.00.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Optimism ahead of Thursday’s EIA report hadn’t broken free from the attractions below, but wasn’t so optimistic as to suffer any consequences, so no setup was considered. In fact, the wide ranging session spiked up to 4.10 and down to 3.97, making no appreciable net move on the day.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A blip-down overnight was already recovered into Wednesday’s open to help the Falling Knife pattern morph into a dead cat bounce. Potential to 1.3240-1.325-0.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness testing 1281.00 was recovered before Wednesday’s open, but only to firm intraday slightly above the 1284.50 sell signal that must be broken through the close.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight filled the gap back to Monday’s 19.35 close that Tuesday’s reaction down stopped optimistically short of doing. That is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective — and not much less so for having been filled only overnight, since Wednesday didn’t exploit it with a bigger bounce.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting the filled gap back to 141-01 reacted back down to 140-16 support again. That test finally recovered to fresh highs that came 2 ticks short of testing the 141-06 target.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
More testing of 94.00 still failed to gain traction and extend higher, which would put into play a test of at least 96.00.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward from Sep to Oct] Wednesday’s opening gap up rejected Tuesday’s last-minute spike down to 3.93, and extended to probe a fresh high above 4.01, but still reversed to retest Tuesday’s close back down to 3.92. Recovering back up to 4.01 greets Thursday’s EIA report a little too optimistically to be confident in a positive reaction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s 1.3165 low is a 161.8% extension from the previous consolidation that produced the current downleg. Closing back above 1.3205 would reverse it, or else the next lower objectives are 1.3125 and 1.3065.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply Tuesday to attack 1292.00 was not an appropriate start to a sustained rally. Especially when lower targets are outstanding. The balance of the session reversed back down to test the 1284.50 sell signal, which held through the close. Any lower would launch a new downleg targeting 1265.00, which remains likely so long as 1296.00 isn’t recovered first.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up to fresh highs at 19.66 then reversed back down intraday to attack Monday’s 19.33 close. Twice. Stopping optimistically short of filling the gap is bearish from a contrarian perspective, making fresh lows likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight action finally filled the gap outstanding above at 141-01. The balance of the session drifted back down to test 140-16, instead of extending higher to complete the bounce target of 141-06.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s early surge through 94.00 reversed down to fill the gap back to Monday’s 93.35 close, neutralizing its attraction below. The session closed with a test of 93.50 resistance. Tempering the open’s enthusiasm and the closing tempered enthusiasm are potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Perhaps Wednesday’s EIA report will be the catalyst for launching a rally, which should be steep to the point of spiking up if valid.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Easy does it… Gradually firming further Tuesday closed above 3.91 while testing 3.95 resistance. The gap back down to Friday’s 3.78-3.83 remains unfilled, which could still be inhibit the recovery ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday morning duplicated Friday’s bias by gapping down. A fresh low close is no longer required, but gapping down Monday was unable to attract counter-trend sponsorship. While that pessimism so early in the week suggests a bottom is nearing, Monday’s opening gap should still be retested from above first.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively flat price action Sunday night and Monday did not reject the decline or its likelihood for fresh lows testing 1265.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Relatively narrow ranging maintained the lockstep trading with Gold, except for already testing last week’s prior low intraday Monday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s strength stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to 141-01, let alone testing it up to my 141-06 target. But the recovery of 140-16 remained intact.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Another attack on 94.00 reacted down Monday, not yet triggering the buy signal that would initially target at least 96.00.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s strength retested 3.91 resistance before Monday’s open. Gapping up from support to resistance doesn’t often extend higher without further correction. But the action is in-line with bottoming, so long as optimism is meanwhile kept in-check.

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